by Pepe Escobar (cross-posted with Strategic Culture Foundation – by special agreement with the author)
The Trump administration is obsessively spinning the concept of a “free and open Indo-Pacific”. Apart from a small coterie of scholars, very few people around the world, especially across the Global South, know what that means since the then incipient strategy was first unveiled at the 2017 APEC forum in Vietnam.
Now everything one needs to know – and especially not know – about the Indo-Pacific is contained in a detailed Pentagon report.
Still: is this an act, or the real deal? After all, the strategy was unveiled by “acting” Pentagon head Patrick Shanahan (the Boeing guy), who latter committed hara-kiri, just to be replaced by another, revolving door, “acting” secretary, Mark Espel (the Raytheon guy).
Shanahan made a big deal of Indo-Pacific when he hit the 18th Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore last month, picking up on his introduction to the Pentagon report to stress the “geopolitical rivalry between free and repressive world order visions” and demonizing China for seeking to “reorder the region to its advantage”.
In contrast, all the benign Pentagon yearns for is just “freedom” and “openness” for a “networked region”; calling it the New Pentagon Silk Road wouldn’t be far fetched.
Anyone remotely familiar with “Indo-Pacific” knows that’s code for demonization of China; actually, the Trump administration’s version of Obama’s “pivot to Asia”, which was in itself a State Dept. concoction, via Kurt Campbell, fully appropriated by then Secretary Hillary Clinton.
“Indo-Pacific” congregates the Quad – US, Japan, India and Australia – in a “free” and “open” God-given mission. Yet this conception of freedom and openness blocks the possibility of China turning the mechanism into a Quintet.
Add to it what hawkish actor Esper told the Senate Armed Services Committee way back in 2017:
“My first priority will be readiness – ensuring the total Army is prepared to fight across the full spectrum of conflict. With the Army engaged in over 140 countries around the world, to include combat operations in Afghanistan and Iraq, training rotations to Europe to deter Russia, and forward deployed units in the Pacific defending against a bellicose North Korea, readiness must be our top priority.”
That was 2017. Esper didn’t even talk about China – which at the time was not the demonized “existential threat” of today. The Pentagon continues to be all about Full Spectrum Dominance.
Beijing harbors no illusions about the new Indo-Pacific chief they will be dealing with.
Surfing FONOP
“Indo-Pacific” is a hard nut to sell to ASEAN. As much as selected members may allow themselves to profit from some “protection” by the US military, Southeast Asia as a whole maintains top trade relations with China; most nations are participants of the New Silk Roads, or Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and members of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB); and they will not shrink from enjoying the benefits of Huawei’s 5G future.
Actually even the other three in the Quad, as much as they are not linked to BRI, are having second thoughts on playing supportive roles in an all-American super production. They are very careful about their geoeconomic relations with China. “Indo-Pacific”, a club of four, is a de facto late response to BRI – which is indeed open, to over 65 nations so far.
The Pentagon’s favorite mantra concerns the enforcement of “freedom of navigation operations” (FONOP) – as if China, juggling the countless tentacles of global supply chains, would have any interest in provoking naval insecurity anywhere.
So far, “Indo-Pacific” has made sure that the US Pacific Command was renamed US Indo-Pacific Command. And that’s about it. Everything remains the same in terms of those FONOPs – in fact a carefully deceptive euphemism for the US Navy to be on 24/7 patrol anywhere across Asian seas, from the Indian to the Pacific, and especially the South China Sea. No ASEAN nation though will be caught dead performing FONOPS in South China Sea waters within 12 nautical miles of rocks and reefs claimed by Beijing.
The rampant demonization of China, now a bipartisan sport across the Beltway, on occasion even more hysterical than the demonization of Russia, also features proverbial reports by the Council on Foreign Relations – the establishment’s think tank by definition – on China as a serial aggressor, politically, economically and militarily, and BRI as a geoeconomic tool to coerce China’s neighbors.
So it’s no wonder this state of affairs has led Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on a recent, frenetic Indo-Pacific related tour, including Quad members India and Japan and possible associates Saudi Arabia, UAE and South Korea.
Geopoliticians of the realist school do fear that Pompeo, a fanatic Christian Zionist, may be enjoying under Trump a virtual monopoly on US foreign policy; a former CIA director playing warmongering top “diplomat” while also “acting” as Pentagon head trampling other second string actors who are not under full employment.
His Indo-Pacific roving was a de facto tour de force emphasizing the containment/demonization not only of China but also Iran, which should be seen as the major US target in the Indo/Southwest Asia part of the club. Iran is not only about strategic positioning and being a major BRI hub; it’s about immense reserves of natural gas to be traded bypassing the US dollar.
The fact that the non-stop demonization of Iran and/or China “aggression” comes from a hyperpower with over 800 military bases or lily pads spread out across every latitude plus a FONOP armada patrolling the seven seas is enough to send the hardest cynic into a paroxysm of laughter.
The high-speed train has left the station
In the end, everything under “Indo-Pacific” goes back to what game India is playing.
New Delhi meekly opted for not buying oil from Iran after the Trump administration lifted its sanctions waiver. New Delhi had promised earlier, on the record, to only respect UN Security Council sanctions, not unilateral – and illegal – US sanctions.
This decision is set to jeopardize India’s dream of extending its new mini-Silk Road to Afghanistan and Central Asia based on the Iranian port of Chabahar. That was certainly part of the discussions during the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Bishkek, when full members Putin, Xi and Modi, plus Rouhani – as the head of an observer nation – were sitting at the same table.
New Delhi’s priority – embedded deep in the Indian establishment – may be containment of China. Yet Putin and Xi – fellow BRICS and SCO members – are very much aware that Modi cannot at the same time antagonize China and lose Iran as partner, and are deftly working on it.
On the Eurasian chessboard, the Pentagon and the Trump administration, together, only think Divide and Rule. India must become a naval power capable of containing China in the Indian Ocean while Japan must contain China economically and militarily all across East Asia.
Japan and India do meet – again – when it comes to another more geoeconomically specific anti-BRI scheme; the Asia-Africa Growth Corridor (AAGC), which so far has had a minimal impact and stands no chance of luring dozens of nations across the Global South away from BRI-related projects.
The chessboard now clearly shows Indo-Pacific pitted against the three key hubs of Eurasia integration – Russia-China-Iran. The definitive unraveling of Indo-Pacific – even before it starts gaining ground – would be a clear commitment by New Delhi to break apart the US sanctions regime by restarting purchases of much-needed Iran oil and gas.
It won’t take much for Modi to figure out that taking a second role in a Made in USA production will leave him stranded at the station eating dust just as the high-speed Eurasia integration train passes him by.
Here is an interesting look at how the Pentagon is changing its strategy for fighting wars:
https://viableopposition.blogspot.com/2019/05/the-american-militarys-new-trojan-horse.html
This new capability will cost taxpayers at least $135 billion but it is not clear how this will defeat the rapidly modernizing forces of both China and Russia.
Modi is a very slow learner. BRI is exactly what he needs to bring investment and infrastructure to India.
The US will never help him. Japan has made some effort to step in as Modi hesitates with China. But the big development that India needs and in some ways deserves is paused as Modi vacillates.
President Xi has made extraordinary efforts to assuage Modi. Now Putin will work on Modi’s ego. The Indian PM is weak where great leaders are strong. So, other leaders have to pamper him.
When evaluating Modi, it is never strategic, logical or geopolitical considerations that matter. It is his weak personality and needy ego that are the deciding factors.
The only good thing with Modi is he hasn’t gone all in with the Indo-Pacific strategy of containing China and Russia’s Pacific Fleet. He is no Abe who is a through and through imperialist, dreaming of reconquest of NE Asia, starting with the Kuril Islands. Both men suffer from delusions of grandeur. The US hopes to exploit those delusions.
Modi has the same problem as Erdogan. Too much to be done, too little time for doing or chest thumping. I guess they’re just flapping.
I don’t know about that. I can see it being in India’s best interests straddling the line and playing both sides. They can get great weapons deals and technology from the US at low prices as they lead the DC crowd on. They can play nice with Russia and China and get what they want out of the BRI project. Similarly Erdogan is in the same position. It is better to be courted by the playground bully than his target. Especially if he thinks he needs you on his sides. That way you can get something from both sides.
Larchmonter, regarding your opinion that modi has a “needy ego” how could you possibly make this evaluation when you don’t even speak Hindi and Gujarati? Could you substantiate your statement? Otherwise it just sounds like you’re shooting from the hip with opinions that can’t be taken seriously or letting your personal dislike for his success interfere with rational evaluation.
I’m not being sarcastic, I’m seriously asking you for material to show us a critical view of Modi that can be taken seriously (ie bereft of Anglo fake news propaganda or the equivalent emotional diatribes found in the Global Times).
Awaiting your response.
“Open seas” and open trails, roads and skies are a theme bad old US of A is
an expert at.
In or about 1850 they deemed it necessary to OPEN the texan, arizonian and californian lands to mine a new found gold close to the pacific.
In 1903 the benign americans sucessfully tore down Panama to OPEN a canal linking the oceans – tearing it off from Colombia territory as a precondition before. The same was done to the Philipines as you know.
Ah, from Cuba the US senate enforced the Guantanamo land robbery in 1906.
a few yrs later they swore it necessary to take over the Haiti whom they occupied for 21 years, until the Bible cowboys recognized there was no reason to stay with the poorest piece of land on earth: so they hurried to leave it to its own miserable people.
From then on, the rosary of invasions in Asia turned a stream of manifestest Destiny: Taiwan, Marshal, Okinawa ( 20% of the island for a military base), Korea,
Vietnam, Granada, Iraq, afghanistan. After the demise of URSS then the
simple lease of The Baltics, Ukraine.
That ‘s where the RIC consortioum of nations (russia, India, China) puts an end to century long folly.
The writings of this Indian ex-ambassador makes sense usually. So, it is not all quiet in India – there are people talking.
US pours oil into fire in Gulf, mum’s the word for India
https://indianpunchline.com/us-pours-oil-into-fire-in-gulf-mums-the-word-for-india/
That is an excellent article from M. K. BHADRAKUMAR.
India No Partner to US’ Disastrous Foreign Policy:’ Citizens Protest Mike Pompeo’s Historic Visit
https://sputniknews.com/asia/201906251076046703-india-no-partner-to-us-disastrous-foreign-policy-citizens-protest-mike-pompeos-historic-visit/
“The protesters held banners saying “No war on Iran” and rhythmically shouted out slogans such as “hands off Iran.”
One of the members of Parliament spoke to Sputnik saying it is the people of India who are really “dictators”, ascertaining however that the Indian government “succumbed to American dictates.”
“So we believe that it is high time to tell the rulers of America as well as India that India’s foreign policy is based on peace, solidarity and friendship with other nations in a principled manner, “ he asserted, before drawing a suggestive line between Indian and US policies:
“American foreign policy is based on war, on the arms trade, on killing, on arm-twisting. That just happens, “the protester pointed out, stressing that there is no way India should be a partner “to such a disastrous foreign policy.”
“That is why when the American Secretary of State comes to India, we would like to tell him that India is not made just for American policies- India is India!”
‘We’ll do what’s in our national interest’: Indian FM to Pompeo on buying S-400s from Russia
https://www.rt.com/news/462736-india-s400s-national-interest/
“India’s foreign minister said New Delhi will have nothing but its own interests in mind, when following on the deal to purchase S-400 air defense missile systems from Moscow, the deal the US is strongly opposed to.
Subrahmanyam Jaishankar made his comments while responding to a question about the S-400 at a presser with US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo during his visit to New Delhi.
“We have relationships with several countries, many of which are of some standing. They have a history. We will do what is in our national interest.”
India to ‘make clear’ to US that S-400 deal with Moscow ‘can’t be wished away’ – report
https://www.rt.com/news/462655-india-s400-mike-pompeo/
“We have a longstanding defense relationship with Russia we cannot wish away,” a diplomatic source told NDTV ahead of US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s visit to New Delhi on Tuesday.
According to the report, it “will be made clear” to Pompeo that India expects to receive a waiver from Washington, allowing the country to acquire Russian arms without the risk of violating US sanctions.
The $5 billion deal to buy five batteries of Russian-made top-notch S-400 Triumf (Triumph) air defense missile systems was signed by President Vladimir Putin and Prime Minister Narendra Modi in October.”
Meanwhile:
India slaps retaliatory tariffs on 28 US products ahead of Pompeo’s visit
https://www.rt.com/news/461965-india-slaps-tariffs-us-products/
“The US goods affected by the Indian tariffs include iron and steel products, flat-rolled stainless steel, boric acid, tube and pipe fittings, screws, bolts and rivets. The hikes also target food products such as walnuts, chickpeas, lentils, apples, pears and artemia shrimps.”
India and China are major rivals, India and Iran are not. India may join israel’s pindo colonials in some manner to against China, but I doubt they would against Iran.
I see India as working on a similar independent strategy as Turkey, and perhaps The Philippines. Modi, Erdogan and Duterte have similar independent streaks about them.
Well said vot tak, your posting is a good reality check to counter the usual non-facts held by indophobes. There is a very deep sympathy in India towards Slavs and their suffering (it is on an emotional and cultural level); with a special emphasis on Russia and Serbia.
The servile instincts of the Indian ruling elite are exacerbated by the influence of the Overseas Indians in the USA who predispose the home country to groveling to the USA and Israel, because it directly benefits them, and they finance Modi. Add the burden of the caste system, the influence of Hindutva fascist chauvinism and the accelerating ecological Holocaust, and India has no good future as a puppet of the West. In a way it acts more like some Latin American dependency, like a Chile or Guatemala, than a great civilization.
The Overseas Indians are India’s only success story the last century or so. Ofc they’re calling the shots and asserting they know better. The wimpy INC allowed all sorts of advisors from Chicago and NewYork (think U of Chicago, NYU) and other policy wonks to come in and ‘advise’. Some were OK, some’s agenda was doubtful.
Modi has taken first steps to tighten the process, but there’s what they call as “Lutyens” in New Delhi where the fifth column resides, and they control the noise.
So, he’s faced with quite some challenges and for now the course is set though things are getting corrected in small ways. No noticable impact for the next few years atleast.
The burden of caste system! Well, the caste system is not real burden, but the troubles created by meddling with the caste system is real. Sadly for them, they cannot see the forest, as it’s plain divide and rule for everyone that can see, to keep that country from progressing. There is a lot of power to harness from that game and even the local politicians who see that are not going to outright say it, if there’s something it for them.
Overall, the forecast is gloomy.
It appears that regime change in Iran is very closely linked to attempts to contain China, and put a hold to the Belt and Road Initiative. So the developing tri-partite alliance (China, Iran, Russia) makes logical sense. All three have vital interests at stake; all three will go to war together in the face of existential threat. No one can back down when survival is the price.
Peter,
“all three will go to war together in the face of existential threat”.
They would all have to be attacked simultaneously by the same alliance forces for them to “go to war together”.
In other words, your statement is not fact-based. No one, not even the Hegemon would begin a war against these three. In the case of the US, it would lose two-thirds of its fleets in the opening hours.
Even a missile war and drone attack only, would lead the attacker to utter destruction. It is a self-immolation act to attack Russia, much less, China and Iran.
There will be no war that large. The superpowers have found a reduced war technology, using proxies and hybrid war techniques to have their wars. The US is hooked like an addict on hybrid wars. That’s what we see going on and what we don’t see yet (secret wars by special forces, cyber command and financial sanctions and techniques to disrupt and sink economies).
to Larchmonter445 July 13th:
Your 2nd para:
Did you also calculate that NATO is present ? Did you include in your thoughts that the “hegemon” wouldn’t start it alone ? Did you include that the “hegemon” wouldn’t hesitate to use special bombs ? Wether it would be filled with the appropriate Uranium or Neutron bombs or even to use its huge “material” from its biological “research”-centers ?
I don’t think that the “hegemon” would hesitate to use everything at his hand.
Please remember that the “hegemon” didn’t refrain to use doctors for “research” even on pregnant women without their consent and knowledge. Not to forget those where its own citizen ! Please remember to the various “programms” of drugs on its own citizen ?
“Ultra …” (I don’t remember exactly the right name but you can search by interest in the Internet). The program “Ultra …” was only discovered at the beginning of the 70th-years last century. Nobody knows for sure if this program wasn’t further continued “done” or still is. And all under the eyes of its citizen who close their eyes and are mostly sleeping or whose interest what their government does is for them of no interest.
You accuse Modi of suffering from delusions of grandeur yet you yourself could be legitimately accused of exactly the same because you presume to know what’s best for Modi or India. I don’t trust Modi or any politicians for that matter (that includes Putin and Xi). What I do trust is their intelligence and capability: all three self-made men have pulled off a personal miracle based on their own competence, cunning, leadership skills and hard efforts to become the leaders of the three most powerful and significant countries on the planet – all in a political environment infested with sharks and pitfalls. Neither you nor I can profess to even approach their level understanding of their respective regions. Some humility please.
With respect to the article, pepe Escobar again misses some key points. According to the wall street journal, India is breaking US sanctions and buying oil directly from Iran. It is true that that reckless ‘apparent’ buffoonery by Trump has endangered India’s carefully cultivated efforts of building a north south corridor to Central Asia, Russia and Europe through Iran. It is also true that you have not seen any presumptuous and reckless statements from Iran regarding India despite the slow down in oil imports. This tells you Iranians understand the temporary bind the Indians are in and are hedging their bets that the future will sway in their direction.
The attempt to rebrand the Indian ocean and the Pacific rim (ie China seas and sea of Japan) , the “Indo-Pacific” is a desperate and bald faced attempt by some arrogant exceptionalists idiots in the US establishment to usurp suzerainty and Mindshare of these bodies of water and turn them into US geopolitical constructs: it will fail. The United States is a declining power, it’s already passed its peak, many of the apparatchiks in the US Deep State are too insecure or incompetent to have accepted this, hence the incoherence in US policy. Rational players would opt for a soft landing, emotionally immature ones will keep living in exceptionalist fantasy land and proceed on delusions.
The only point that Escobar brings up that has any real serious value is that this whole game is about attempting to capture control of the natural gas market in the same way as petroleum. This is the real point, this is real reason Iran is targeted and caught in the middle. It is also true that Russia is also playing the game to stay the dominant player in this market and Iran having free access to global markets isn’t exactly in Russia’s best interests: hence Russia’s lukewarm support of Iran. The US attempt to duplicate their success with fiat pétrodollar with natural gas will fail because the gig is up and the whole world has seen where this is headed.
It does not seem likely that a sovereignist like Modi does not understand the anarchic and unreliable nature of the US political system: any agreement the US signs isn’t worth the paper it’s written on because any branch of the US government can sabotage it. And now we can add the US bureaucracy, deep state and hysteria-prone fake-news media oligarchs to the list of saboteurs in the only functioning (barely) in the western hemisphere.
Finally, larchmonter, you again get key fact wrong: Indian is not building up its naval fleet to contain Russia as well as China. This claim looks ridiculous when you look at the facts that it is Russia that helping build up the Indian Navy with massive assistance in Nuclear submarine operations and design input, destroyer, cruiser and frigate design, air craft carrier build-out and tech transfer in naval construction, alloys etc. Russia is the primary foreign naval technology and hardware supplier to India and China, with India offering the lion’s share of contracts. Such a claim by you implies that you think Russia and Putin must be very naive.
The last sentence in the second to last paragraph of my above post should have read: “the only (barely) functioning anarchy in the western hemisphere”. For me this was a significant point.
I think it’s very important to recognize that the United States can no longer be regarded as a nation-state but more like a pseudo-functioning anarchy with internal virtual power warlordism, deep entrenched power factions and proxies representing the interests of other nations as well internal and external economic factions driving policy chaos.
It’s a very dangerous mix that was kept stable by respect for the executive branch, professionalism in the State Department and the US military, and a give and take culture in Congress, and fear of the Soviet Union. Unfortunately, (for the US and it’s citizens) these factors have been systematically eroded out and are almost wiped out hence we have the overt display of government anarchy and dysfunction.