Day 22 – where do we go from here? Two decisions

An interesting development two days back on sanctions front. The first dilution of financial sanction against Russia took place, when Russia asked J P Morgan to pay off interest to its debt holder, which had become due, from its deposits with it. And, J P Morgan after getting clearance from the US government made the payment. Another interesting aspect is that several American pension funds are holding Russian bonds. This has made it politically very difficult for US to deny payments which are becoming due on these bonds from Russia’s reserves impounded by it.

I confess that I’m a member of the choir that Andrei preaches to but for the benefit of the ‘unreachables’ please let me just explain how one may become a member of the choir and ‘get it.’

It’s rather easy, actually.

First thing is to pay close attention to what Russia’s leaders, starting with the top, Vladimir Putin, have to say about the matter, even if, for most of us who are not Russian speakers, we are only getting a translation of what has been said. Granted, it is sometimes difficult to listen to hour-long speeches or read the transcripts of what are essentially dry material, but that’s their style — no bombast, no histrionics, nothing sensationalist, just a matter-of-fact telling of the story. Many of us do not have the patience to listen/read carefully to what they say, accustomed as we are to bullet-point presentations, complete with graphics and the occasional test-tube of ‘evidence’, IOW dumbed-down speeches; but that needs to change if we are to get a good working grasp of the situation. Forget about the minute-to-minute, blow-by-blow reports from Twitter or other social media — they just obscure the big picture and really are only of interest to people who play video games, train-spotters, and fancy themselves analysts.

Number two, compare what they say to what — with the help of the best available information we can get our hands on — is happening on the ground.

A simple example: RF stated publically about three weeks ago that it was mounting a ‘special military operation’ with the aim of ‘demilitarisation’ and ‘de-Nazification’ of the Ukraine. It didn’t talk about ‘war’, ‘destruction’, ‘liberation’, or ‘conquest’ of the Ukraine. It didn’t talk about capturing all of the Ukraine’s major cities; not even Kiev, which a real invading army would aim for — capture of the enemy’s capital. Nope, all they said was just a special military operation with specific aims.

Talking of Kiev, spend some time watching livestreams of the place put up by CGTN or some other channel — a far cry from a city under ‘barbarous’ assault by an aggressive Russia; certainly not like Dresden, Tokyo or Falluja.

Live cam of Maidan square from four days ago (Greek channel):

https://youtu.be/RM5729WtG98

What is happening on the ground in the Ukraine? Well, for one thing, the Ukraine is getting demilitarised as we speak. RF MoD gives a running tally of Ukrainian military losses almost every day; not losses in personnel but numbers of military equipment destroyed — HQs, aircraft, missile launchers, depots, artillery, EW complexes, etc. For another, Nazis are getting annihilated, not just in the east but also in the west of the Ukraine.

Thus if we judge Russian ‘success’ in the Ukraine by comparing what it said it would do to what it is doing, we can only conclude that it is very successful.

Western narrative naturally turns RF’s stated aims on their head — thus we get stories of RF forces ‘running out of steam’, being bogged down, not being able to capture cities, having poor logistics and, the absolute gem, the ‘operation being badly planned.’ In fact an idiot from RUSI, no less, actually said in an interview that RF commanders essentially lied to their troops about it all being an exercise!

So, as a member — and a proud one, if I may add — of the Saker’s choir, may I suggest that readers do some homework and spend ‘quality’ time listening to/reading up on all the dry stuff coming out of the Kremlin, the MFA and RF MoD and get a sound idea of what RF is trying to achieve in the Ukraine and thus insulate themselves from all the crap and corruption coming out from the West’s commentators. And start on their journey to becoming a member of the Choir. At the very least that would afford Andrei some rest.

Dear Saker and readers,

Thank you to all for your commentary and support of the Saker, his work presents an excellent analysis of changes in this ever-growing conflict in Ukraine.
The time to ‘be prepared’ for the worst is now, let me help explain some trends.

IS NUCLEAR WAR LIKELY?

Yes, and I believe more so than the Cuban Missile Crisis. As a military veteran (Ex-Intelligence analyst), I’ve been watching and observing the geopolitics between the west and Russia for many years; and in this recent conflict, like the Saker and many others, daily and hourly watching these events unfold.

The risks of miscalculation or mistakes have never been higher due to the current conflict and political relations between the collective-west and the Russian Federation. Let alone any strategic planning for first strike events from both sides.

The likelihood is impossible to calculate to a percentage, and with the likes of Putin in power in Russia, the risks of a nuclear exchange are still low – he will likely try all other means first before resorting to a nuclear strike, major or minor on the EU or wider. But the unknown risk factor is how far the collective-west will go and noting how frenzied their actions have been, the escalations keep coming every 24-48hrs.

IF WW3 STARTS – NUCLEAR WAR IS HIGHLY PROBABLE

In the event of WW3, i.e., a declaration of war between Russia and the United States, or involvement of NATO against Russia – things will likely spiral out of control rapidly, therefor the time to prepare for a nuclear conflict could be as little as (hours) to (days) for you, your family and loved ones.

Be prepared to act-early by:

1) Monitoring the news, if a conflict breaks out, again we may only have hours, (days if we’re lucky) before Nuclear weapons are seriously “considered” by both sides.

2) Getting out of a mass populated area early, e.g. city or major township will be important, you don’t want to be stuck in traffic during a post-event evacuation. Initiating an un-planned vacation (excuse to your boss) early is better (playing it safe) than being one of millions struggling to find shelter and supplies post event if nuclear strikes begin.

3) Ensure you bring at least 1-week of supplies, food, water, meds, etc; minimal water survival needs for an adult is approximately 1L per day, in cool and stationary rest. Some extra fuel jerries would also be ideal so you don’t need to rely on gas/fuel stations to travel long distance in your vehicle.

4) Shelter is the most important, from blast radiation or from nuclear fallout carried by the weather across continents. No amount of supplies will save you if you get radiation effects at lethal levels. Keeping away from the radiation (fallout) threat is paramount, therefore consider cave systems, or anything that puts you underground, i.e. earth between you and the elements.

5) Once you’ve noted some safe locations to travel to, consider recon of this area to ensure it’s suitable. Importantly – Draw/print a map with easy directions, if satellite or phone receptions drops, you may not be able to rely on any devices to help you navigate, other than road signs, townships etc. Hence a physical map of directions is advisable and at least one recon trip to get use to the route.

SURVIVAL SKILLS

Download and print this: https://www.survival.ark.net.au/Nuclear-War-Survival-Skills.pdf

This covers nuclear facts and self-help lifesaving instructions during a nuclear war.
The original edition was published in 1979 by the U.S. Department of Energy.

WHAT NOW?

Hope for the best and prepare for the worst, that’s all I can add; if you’re prepared well enough, you have a high chance of survival even if the worst case (nuclear war) happens.

There are many myths about nuclear weapons, radiation etc, the book you can download above spells it all out, plus practical ways ensure your survival chances.

If you’ve read this far, thank you, you likely get the seriousness of this possibility, hence I don’t need to convince you this is something important to consider.

I hope like everyone else this conflict doesn’t spiral into WW3; I want this conflict to be resolved without nuclear weapons – that is still the most likely case, i.e. that we don’t reach a nuclear war, instead some other outcome is found and or negotiated – but I am note blind to the risks that in some days increase in chance due to escalations from the collective west, this is very worrying and something to keep an eye on as events unfold.

Stay safe and be prepared.

Here are some articles on the impact of nuclear war. Even a “limited” nuclear war between say, India and Pakistan, is very ugly, including for those people far outside of the conflict zone who would face effects like mass famine.

A major war between the USA and Russia involving strategic nukes? That would likely end the human species.

Nuclear winter—the long-suppressed reality of nuclear war
https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2022/03/14/nucl-m14.html

Climate scientist Michael Mills describes the devastation of a nuclear detonation
https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2022/03/17/nucl-m17.html

https://nuclearfamine.org/

Just wanted to mention that I found a Youtube channel named “BelaRus News” which posts a daily summary of the events on the Ukrainian front. They are using detailed maps, and the info seems fairly reliable.
Thanks, J

@ Saker

Again, you either “get it” or you don’t. It’s that simple, really.

Grateful for your efforts to give us a clean and broad perspective of varied factors in the battlefield.

Your intensity matches our intense times, and your panopticon view of the landscape is brutally realistic.

Wonder if the Pentagon has a team to study you, Martyanov, et al articles, books, and videos, and whether some of them “get it” but can’t do anything against the structure, or they don’t. No doubt you are on their sight, meaning, the alphabet soup intel sight, I wouldn’t be surprised if you are (have been for a while), under low to mid-level surveillance. Same with Martyanov, keep on looking for links with Russian intel, see how they can label all of you as “foreign agents,” so far, no luck.

Also, they don’t like to be called “stupid,” “dumb,” and many other fitting names you and Martyanov use regularly. And they like it even less to be told that Russia will hand them their assess again, as Martyanov says it happens “every hundred years or so.” Still, I have the suspicion they study you and others they consider Russian intelligentsia, e.g., Orlov, et al. They would be utterly stupid if they did not, it is an insight into the Russian mindset.

Back to the subject.

My attention was called to a post by Michael Hudson (/day-22-where-do-we-go-from-here-two-decisions/comment-page-2/#comment-1047443) in which he asserts there will not be an atomic war.

Michael Hudson on March 18, 2022 · at 5:34 pm EST/EDT

I don’t think there will be an atomic war, Andrei.

I DO think that the US expects — and will prod — Russia to bomb supply threats from Poland and Romania (at least). But the motive of this is not to escalate. It is to “gild the lily” on “reminding” Europe how dangerous Russia is to NATO members.

The US fight in Ukraine from the outset was just what Biden said: to stop Nord Stream 2, and to block the EU from increasing trade and investment with Russia. The fantasy was the this would weaken Russia, perhaps leading to regime change, and make it easier to take on China.

that was a crazy dream.

In 1950, when Stalin feared a US attack from Europe in the West, he urged Mao — who at first resisted — to support Kim in North Korea so as to distract U.S. forces. So China has a role to play here once again, I bet.
But the US isn’t going to send an army anywhere. That’s why I’m staying right here in New York.

From an economic perspective, Hudson’s view is that the goals of the Empire of Lies have been fulfilled, Germany is a secured vassal, NS2 was stopped, and there will be no “Lisbon to Vladivostok” trade arc, therefore, there is no reason for the EoL to pursue kinetic military action beyond, to use his expression, “gild the lily.” That reasoning assumes the EoL would be satisfied with canceling Russia at all other levels, isolate it as a pariah from the world, limiting their kinetic actions to provoke some controlled confrontations across borders with NATO, just to reiterate how dangerous Russia is, which justifies more weapons purchases, war is business, business is war.

In this context, however, even a “gild the lily” provocation can unleash a conventional war, which will instantly put the finger on the nuclear trigger in all involved (strike first, said Putin.) That doesn’t mean Hudson’s view is equivocated, my POV is that the confrontation Russia/EoL can very well develop on a two-track vector, balanced between the Saker’s urgent assessment of danger, and Hudson’s perspective the EoL already got what they wanted, will now play a conservative hand with lots of noise.

The potential for an escalation will be present all along, however. Russia will have to distinguish between the provocations and the real threats. The message delivered by a few Kalibr missiles to Yavoriv was loud and clear, Russia will accept no challenges within its sphere of dominance, which expands to all of Ukraine.

Final thought: the Saker has lost all confidence on the EoL ability to reason. I believe he is absolutely correct in that assertion, totally based on historical facts.

From there, all you can see the is an unfathomable abyss…

Lone Wolf

PS: Hudson mentions the China card based on previous history, how Stalin urged Mao to support Kim against McArthur’s invasion. My version of those events is different, it was Mao who asked Stalin for help in fighting the US invasion of N.K., out of fear the Yalu river would become China’s new border with a US-controlled Korea. Stalin was reluctant, his strategy was focused on confronting the looming danger coming from the West, so much so he delayed providing air support to China’s “volunteer troops” in North Korea, which cost China tens of thousands of lives and lost of materiel from the US carpet bombing.

Whether China would be willing to play its hand against the EoL, is yet to be seen. I assume China will play a waiting game, will be in constant consultation with Russia, and if they evaluate China can open the Taiwan front, the possibilities for a nuclear confrontation will increase exponentially.

@ Nightvision

Yep and a huge media black out of the event. In fact the one or two tiny attempts at a ‘report’ I’ve seen from any western source, they allegedly interviewed a women who claimed that she was “bussed in” with other people from somewhere else and wasn’t even told where she was going, i.e. in support of the narrative that the only reason the crowd was so large was because Putin just bussed thousands of people into the stadium from all over and paid them off. Complete joke

Thanks for that note. I was surprised after not checking the blog all day, nothing had been posted on such an important event, which is taking place against the background of Russia’s special operation right across the border. The attendance was an implicit support for Putin/Russia, for the extirpation of the nazi cancer in 404, a looming danger for Crimea, and a gesture of gratefulness and big relief they were saved right on time from the ongoing suffering of their compatriots in Donbass. They could have been in the same predicament, had Putin not mobilized the “green man” to take over Crimea.

Lone Wolf

Gen Milley backchannelled China from professed fear of Trump and nuclear weapons and I have no doubt Pentagon has no wish to engage Russia and sees Regime in DC as threat to lifestyle and maybe loss of US strutting influence

US will throw UK under a bus

France and Germany and Italy main Treaty of Rome EEC founders want security in Europe not Us-UK games and will ditch EU satrapies in East that are used by US and UK to control EU

At the end of the day, no matter the outcome, you will have NEVER failed any of us, the larger world outside or yourself Andrei. Don’t ever forget that my friend!! I think I speak for all of us in stating that you have our profound gratitude and respect for all you do to a. keep us informed of critical military and political developments and b. try your best to help avoid a disastrous war between the “west” and Russia. I’m not religious but I am a believer in something greater than life on Earth and I pray that its vast visual array that spans the universe is currently focused here on us favoring our continued existence.

Dear Saker,

I think you are absolutely right and you must take care of yourself.

I too believe war is imminent, if not occurring by stealth already, in so far as the preparations go.
I disagree about sanctions being the only way to force a decoupling. There are many other ways that stop short of punishing innocent people, but that is now water under the bridge.

I also believe that Putin did not know the scale and depth of the Western ruling class’s corruption. Empire of Lies does not even get to the half of it.

It is an Empire of Slander, Spying, Brainwashing,Torture, Filth, Humiliation, Degradation, Abasement, and Depravity on an industrial scale. I do not mean that people living in these countries are agents of this evil. I am talking solely about the apparatus of the super state, the intelligence agencies, the ruling classes, especially the media and infotainment/academic/think-tank industrial complex which disseminates this poison. The people in these countries, like those in target countries, and indeed ordinary people everywhere, are being poisoned en masse, morally and physically.

Looking good!:

“War In Ukraine Day 23: Russian Forces On Track To Achieve Strategic Goals”
https://southfront.org/war-in-ukraine-day-23/

Andrei, some thoughts for you:

1) Remember, “All I know is I don’t know.”

2) Take all of this “One Day at a Time” (or whatever shorter interval you need to maintain your health and sanity).

3) You are NOT alone! :)

I’m a happy choir member, Andrei. Please stay safe! I prayed for the people of Ukraine and Russia this morning and I’m going to add a mention of you, specifically. Like others here, I’m wondering if it would be better for you to get outta Dodge.

My personal objective Sitrep for tonight with a few updates:

-Most of the current positive activity occurs in the sectors of Lugansk/Severodonetsk theatre, Mariupol theatre,North Mariupol / South Donetsk, and south Kharkiv / Izyum axis. I’ll address each briefly then comment on the other semi-‘frozen’ fronts.

-Lugansk. This has turned into one of the most important fronts due to the heavy progress that’s being made here. Yesterday forces captured Rubezhnoe just north of Severodonetsk, and now today we have word the storming of Severodonetsk is purportedly already happening, though slowly. Reports that Met’olkine district in eastern Severodonetsk is being cleared by LNR forces. Needless to say this is a large (100k+ population) and important city that would be the 3rd/4th largest to fall once it’s taken, after Kherson, Melitopol, and Berdiansk which has similar population. This will then free up lots of forces and put heavy pressure on the ‘Great Cauldron’ from the east.

Map: https://twitter.com/nukesn_missiles/status/1504944236545851395
https://twitter.com/spriter99880/status/1504984599629377541

-Also Popasnaya further south of Severodonetsk is half captured by LNR forces. Ukrop troops remain in western part of the town but are quickly being cleansed and this too will soon be liberated.

-Kharkiv area: Izeum has confirmed to finally have FULLY fallen, as for a while, the south part of the town was still held by Ukrop forces but now it seems RF controls the entire city.

“#KHARKOV-#IZYUM—#Russia|n forces bypassed the cauldroned remnants of the #Ukraine|ian 81st Airmobile Brigade in south Izyum, moving the offensive south to #Gusarovka, to the southeast of #Barvenkovo. Fighting continued in the former. No confirmation of taking the latter.”

I have to link the map like this rather than twitter because this account is being “restricted” and links are not working unless you are signed in to a twitter account: https://i.postimg.cc/SxbgTJGn/FOLnv7x-WQAc9-Ti.png

“Izyum-Slavyansk highway has been cut, removing one of last supply lines to pre-cauldroned #Ukraine|ian forces in the #Slavyansk-#Kramatorsk sector.”

Furthermore, there were reports and video of RF troops entering Chuhuiv / Chuguiv way northwest of Izyum (right outside of Kharkiv, southeast). But I don’t know yet if it’s been fully captured or not, though some are reporting that it’s been capped. https://twitter.com/Suriyakmaps/status/1504498001213116423

– Near Donetsk, RF forces captured Ugledar and Prechistovka, slowly working their way to soon assaulting the key town of Velyka Novosilka. Purportedly RF troops have already struck out north towards Bohoyavlenka towards Kurakhove direction to full bring up the front line with Donetsk city and begin closing the cauldron.

-In Mariupol both sides advanced further from west and east and struck deeper towards the center. On monday I said I’d give it a week to fall, which would give my prediction about 2-3 days remaining. It’s possible but I could see it taking another whole week simply due to the fact that Azov continues to hole themselves up. But the progress here is going quite fast. If you’ve followed things like the Battle of Aleppo back in the day, you know it can take months to cleanse a city. But our forces control more than 50% of it at this point if not more. Some map interpretations to give you an idea: https://twitter.com/GeromanAT/status/1504969582842421250/photo/1

https://twitter.com/fbfsubstack/status/1504968224286388224

https://twitter.com/Suriyakmaps/status/1504910203950612488

https://twitter.com/HarmlessYardDog/status/1504942736415338500

As you can see the city is sort of being split into several independent pockets. Latest news is that Azov battalion has holed up in the giant Azovstal factory (at one time largest in the world as I understand, a huge complex) and was said to be making their “final stand” there. Large RF airstrikes have already hit the factory but there’s no confirmation of how many of them are actually there versus other pockets of the city. https://twitter.com/lostarmour/status/1504841889186463766

One report says:

“#MARIUPOL—150-200 of #Ukraine|ian #Azov neo-#Nazi #NationalGuard troops, split into groups of 10-15, deserted overnight. 93 of them were eliminated by #Russia|n forces. Military sources on the scene indicate 4-7 days for the liberation of the city. (VIDEO: Mariupol evacs) 7/36”

Footage showing takeovers over some parts of Mariupol. Eastern district: https://twitter.com/miladvisor/status/1504799227708424193

Chechens clearing out top floors of a building where Azov thugs have taken refuge, then saving babies: https://twitter.com/200_zoka/status/1504821084721405957

DNR guys playing with enemy snipers https://twitter.com/200_zoka/status/1504965060099203080

And Nazi Azov battalion posts a video that can only be described as them truly gloating in their own image of evilness. Taking entire families hostage while playing the “Terminator 2: Judgment Day” theme on the piano, while they use the civilians as human shields in Mariupol. A truly bizarre and despicable sight https://twitter.com/MaajidNawaz/status/1504835797966540800

-Now a brief note on the other 2 axes of importance — Kherson/Nikolayev and Kiev. Some “analysts” have opined that Russia’s advance has “stalled” there, and even gone as far as to say Russia is losing battle initiative and in fact Ukraine is even gaining initiative for the first time as we have seen an alleged “counter attack” by Ukraine in Nikolayev region. It’s no secret that Russia is a tad overstretched there. But one problem that most armchair ‘analysts’ don’t understand is that not every single strategic objective in a large scale military operation of this nature is about incessant “advances” and captures and progress. In fact what we are seeing here is a strategic hold, a “pinning action.” Russian forces in Nikolayev/Kherson and in Kiev are simply in a holding pattern, pinning down Ukrop reserves from coming to relieve the trapped cauldron in Donbass. RF forces don’t have to be “advancing” or “progressing” for now in these other two regions. What they have done is an extremely important strategic capture, they are holding large amounts of Ukrop forces pinned in these regions, allowing our guys to finish off Mariupol and the Donbas area. Similarly, the flotilla outside Odessa is in fact holding a large amount of Ukrop reserves frozen in place there as well. Because they continue to fear the phantom “beach landing” that they keep saying will happen soon. And Russian ships there continue scaring them into defensive postures so that the Odessa reserves don’t go anywhere else to relieve forces elsewhere in the country. So in short, don’t worry so much about what’s happening in Nikolayev and Kiev, the forces there are doing the exact job they’re supposed to be doing, pinning down massive reserves. Because the Ukrop reserves there know if they leave for a second to try and relieve the Donbas cauldron, then Kiev will be quickly snatched right from under their nose. So they’re forced to sit and get slowly attritioned by superior Russian air strikes / artillery which hits their weak points nightly and continues to degrade their supplies.

-Also one last thing to mention about Nikolayev in particular. Many people correctly predicted that Russia was baiting Ukrop forces with a strategic withdrawal in order to make them over confident. It worked. Russia withdrew slightly towards Kherson and Ukrops began licking their lips and concentrated a massing of their troops. And the rest was history: over 300-500 casualties (counting both dead and injured) after Russian missiles rained down on their barracks today in Nikolayev. https://southfront.org/photos-18-russian-kalibr-missile-hit-ukrainian-military-facility-in-mykolaiv-dozens-of-casualties-reported/

Well, it is closer than you think. From South Front:

“NATO will strengthen its military contingent in Eastern Europe. One hundred thousand soldiers of the US army plus another forty thousand soldiers from the member countries of the Alliance will be deployed in Europe, mostly in the eastern air close to the crisis area between Ukraine and Russia. The go-ahead for the deployment of the contingent will be given on March 24 in Brussels at the extraordinary meeting of the Council of Europe and NATO. The two summits are expected to be attended by the US president, Joe Biden.

It will not be a temporary measure. The secretary of NATO, Jens Stoltenberg, made it clear during a press conference: We are reinforcing our collective defense. Hundreds of thousands of troops on heightened alert. One hundred thousand US troops in Europe. And 40,000 troops under direct NATO command, mostly in the eastern part of our Alliance, supported by naval and air forces. we will also not only address the immediate consequences of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine but we will also address the more long term consequences, the long term adaptation of our Alliance “.

Please read.,
From the bottom of my heart may God grants you and your family your all wishes of the past and of the future. I feel your pain. I lived through it in 1990, 911, 2003. Being a Muslim sand bigger……
Trying to put some logic into someone’s who is congenitally conditioned to think and feel he is and what he says always right. And when they answer why they can’t like us. Trying to tell them there will not be us if they live like us.
Losing the arguments to say the least it drains the energy. Leaving the USA 10 years ago to a colony of it was much Worse. This is what I have to deal with. Sample, Nasrallah is an agent of Israel. Iran, America, Syria and saudis conspired to kill sunnies and to attack turkey. Ukraine is a ploy for a surprise attack on turkey. Then I realized why the Americans have to celebrate Thanksgiving, with turkey its main course. You have to learn philosophy it comes naturally under these circumstances. The best one, if Saddam was still alive non of this would happen to us (the Arabs).
If it wasn’t for the net I would have gone nuts long time ago. But I feel guilty for reading for free.
Smile as Einstein said, I know the limits of the human intelligence but we will never know limits of stupidity.
In the qura’n a verse I always recites. There you may dislike something and but it is good for you, and you may like something and but it’s bad for you.
Cheers

I’m far from being an expert but a thorough reader of this blog. Thank you, Saker, for sharing your expertise!

Here my 2 cents:

Maybe the western psyop infowar is so intense and overall present, that overestimate its effect on “normal people”, and the same time underestimate its effect on us, because another purpose of the propaganda by the system is to unsettle us – the opponents.

In my personal environment, I see many people – friends, working colleagues – with total mistrust of what they see in the mainstream media, *especially* when it comes to the Ukraine thing. But in lack of true information, they remain completely unsecure and are eager for real information. If you talk to these people like “Did you know that the Russian Black Sea Fleet is stationed in Sevastopol and Russia couldn’t just let crimea go in 2014?” they get very contemplative, because they never heard about such things. Happened to me more than once.

And a little side note, although it might not please the Saker so much: 90 percent of those who already didn’t believe in the Covid-19 narrative totally don’t fall for the anti Russia psyop propaganda, since they have no trust left in mass media at all. This is definitely the case in Switzerland (my origin), and I guess it’s the same in Germany and probably in countries like Canada too; at least that’s my conclusion when I read these Telegram channels run by the truckers, where you can read A LOT of NATO critical and even Russia friendly posts, considering they are all OT in these forums. These people are not a “fringe minority” at all, and all over the world (I’m far from trying to open a “Covid discussion” here; just trying to illustrate the proportions. My point: Russia has many friends, even in the countries of NATOstan, but our voices are aggressively kept silent by the lies of the roaring propaganda.)

But here’s what I really wanted to ask:

Saker (and my question goes to everyone else, of course): You’re not very optimistic when it comes to WWIII and the whole thing getting nuclear. Your point: If a fight is inevitable, Putin would strike first (again). Seems comprehensible to be so far, but – Russia is not alone! What about the following scenario – and sorry if my thoughts are naive to those who understand more about military and strategy than I do:

If Russia/China have certain evidence from intelligence that the U.S. are about to start a “Desert Shield type of operation”: What if in that case China took Taiwan over night. Wouldn’t that change the whole dynamic of everything? (I’m aware that NATOstan is run by total nutcases who might not hesitate to risk a war on the Russia AND the China front, but still…)

Too many comments to read them all to see if this has been mentioned. Sorry.
Here in NZ it seems those who don’t get it never will. The rest of us want to understand what’s going on and network with those in our communities who wish to prepare. Your blog is a real help.
As for debunking the same stuff over and over again, why not put a permanent post at the top of your blog? Then let your regular folk in the comments section of each new post deal with the tiresome questions.

David Stockman on the Ukraine situation:

https://www.lewrockwell.com/2022/03/david-stockman/pearl-harbor-my-eye/

I’m an American born and bred. I an mentally perplexed. Covid brainwashing and division is one thing. But now Ukraine has become a political weapon. I am pro Putin and Lavrov. I want to believe Putin is genuinely concerned for Russia and Russian prosperity and the future. This I will take a chance on. He may be all part of a globally orchestrated new world order. I’m not so ignorant or naive to believe the world is not controlled by people who have this power. I am absolutely disgusted by my country, our politicians and media. Even many in my family. I am a proud American who had a very European father but deep slavic roots. Polish. Im disgusted and infuriated by Poland’s alignment with NATO and the US. I really thought Poland was different. I hope the Russian people understand the enemy that will never stop coming for them. LQBTQ, black lives matter, finance capitalism, homosexuality, transgendered, multiculturalism, feminism, etc. These forces are more powerful than any standing army. This is not Nazism, this is not liberalism, this is not democracy. This is a global international anti-god new world order. I believe zionists are behind this and Israeli jews control the US. Florida just passed millions yo force holocaust education as an official part if public education. America is sick, dying, and falling from whatever grace it ever had. None in my lifetime. I am now living in the most corrupt country in the world.

Forgotten American history

(well, forgotten in the traditional American method, ended with a bullet to the brain, the covered up with a magic bullet theory)

“President John F. Kennedy’s “Peace Speech”
— American University Graduation service, June 10, 1963
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0fkKnfk4k40

This President would be dead within 5 months of saying these words that the Deep State did not want to hear.

A transcript available on archive.org, which also has a copy of the video.
https://ia803004.us.archive.org/27/items/1963jun06presidentjohnf.kennedyspeacespeechv01/1963%20JUN%2006%20President%20John%20F.%20Kennedy%27s%20-%20Peace%20Speech%20Transcript.pdf

“I speak of peace, therefore, as the necessary rational end of rational men. I realize that the pursuit of
peace is not as dramatic as the pursuit of war — and frequently the words of the pursuer fall on deaf
ears. But we have no more urgent task.
Some say that it is useless to speak of peace or world law or world disarmament — and that it will be
useless until the leaders of the Soviet Union adopt a more enlightened attitude.
I hope they do. I believe we can help them do it.
But I also believe that we must re-examine our own attitude — as individuals and as a Nation — for
our attitude is as essential as theirs.
And every graduate of this school, every thoughtful citizen who despairs of war and wishes to bring
peace, should begin by looking inward — by examining his own attitude toward the possibilities of
peace, toward the Soviet Union, toward the course of the Cold War and toward freedom and peace
here at home.”

A little bit of a primer on hypersonic missiles since that hypersonic craze is about to overtake us all with the introduction of Khinzal.

Firstly we must distinguish something. “Hypersonic” on its own is not particularly significant to the extent that this is not the first hypersonic missile. In fact all intercontinental missiles and many/most ballistic missiles are hypersonic. This includes everything from the nuclear ICBM’s to things like Iskander ballistic missile which Russia has already used many times in Ukraine. In short, any missile that ascends to outerspace (ICBMs) becomes hypersonic quite easily due to not having any air resistance. In fact nuclear ICBM’s are orders of magnitude faster than the Kinzhal (Mach 10-12?) as they can reach Mach 20-30.

But even with missiles that don’t go to outer space, ballistic missiles like the Iskander are also hypersonic. Although it is unknown (to my knowledge) the exact precise nature of this meaning. You see, Iskander is said to achieve hypersonic speeds at the point of “burnout velocity”, this is the velocity where the rocket has used up all its internal fuel and can then be guided via gasses and fins to its target. It may or may not retain hypersonic speed at that point to the point of the target depending on the distance and how much farther it has to travel. I’ve read at least one source describe an Iskander hitting the target at “supersonic” speeds rather than hypersonic, despite the fact that much of its flight was hypersonic.

The Iskander has some things in common with the Kinzhal, in fact it’s even speculated that the first booster stage of the Kinzhal is in fact the same as the Iskander. And if you look at the two they even look quite similar in their shape.

The main differences are as follows: the Kinzhal is considered an aero-ballistic, i.e. air launched from craft like the MiG-31, which gives it extended range due to the fact that the MiG-31 is the current fastest production plane in the world and can zoom towards a launch vector at Mach 3+ if need be and then launch the missile, thus giving it hundreds, if not thousands of kilometers of extra legroom.

This brings us to the other biggest distinction: the Iskander has a range of 400-500km mostly owing to the limitations of the famous “Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile Treaty” (INF Treaty) which limits and bans any missiles longer than that range but only for ground launched missiles. This means that Iskander while terrifying and probably also un-interceptible due to its speed, cannot really be used in such strategic purposes as truly long distance strikes (though don’t get me wrong 500km is considered pretty damn long distance for a missile at least on a tactical level).

So the Kinzhal circumvents this ban by being air launched and has an estimated/alleged range of 2000-3000km. The “catch” is that this range is listed as combined with the MiG-31 or Tu-22 delivery vehicle, so the actual range of the missile itself is unknown and for a rocket propellant style missile, the range can’t be exceptionally long because rocket fuel is not as efficient as the turbofan of a cruisemissile which can often go much farther on less fuel (mostly cus they travel much slower and thus spend the fuel more ‘efficiently’ as well).

So you may be wondering, what is the real difference between a Kinzhal and an Iskander in terms of their striking power, etc. Well in theory, they are not much different when compared to the same target. The MAIN and chief reason that the West fears the Kinzhal so much is that it was created with the express purpose of targeting U.S. seabased assets particularly Aircraft carriers, which an Iskander can’t really hit for a variety of reasons (range being the biggest, and it’s simply not designed for that). So the Kinzhal is basically a much longer range, and even faster, ship wrecking version of the Iskander.

Also I shouldn’t downplay the fact that, though they are both “hypersonic”, the Kinzhal is claimed to be upwards of double the speed of the Iskander, so this could make it far more deadly. We just don’t know how true those claims are yet, but the unofficial statistics we can see on the web show Iskander as Mach 5.9 and Kinzhal purportedly at Mach 10-12. The reason this is important is because, given 2 objects of the same mass/explosive power (Iskander and Kinzhal are said to both have similar ~500kg warheads, though Iskander has different types of warheads, some are bigger), the one traveling faster will exert more force via kinetic energy which is why according to wikipedia:

“The high speed of the Kinzhal likely gives it far better target-penetration characteristics than lighter subsonic cruise-missiles, such as Tomahawk. Being three times as heavy and almost twelve times as fast as Tomahawk, the Kinzhal has more than 432 times the on-cruise kinetic energy of a Tomahawk missile (~17.3 gigajoules, or equal to 4,100 kg TNT explosive energy).”

So even though a Tomahawk also has a similar 450kg explosive warhead, the Kinzhal infact achieves 432 times the power of a Tomahawk by way of kinetic energy due to being 12 times faster than the American missile.

So, to summarize, although Kinzhal’s characteristics on their own are quite impressive and revolutionary, the real threat of it is the fact that it bypasses Iskander’s limitations with much longer range and abilities to annihilate U.S. carrier groups. This is the real danger of it. American CIWS and AEGIS systems simply cannot stop it due to the fact that these systems require at least 6-15 seconds to acquire and engage a target. But here’s the problem, at the speed of upwards 9000mph, the Kinzhal does 2.5 miles per second. And the curvature of the earth is such that at about 3-4 miles at the horizon, objects are no longer visible. That means by the time the missile even appears targetable/visible on the horizon due to the curvature of the earth, it is already about 2.5 seconds from destroying you, and simply no system on earth can acquire and engage a target that fast.

Last thing I want to say. The video that was released. Personally I’m skeptical that this is actually a Kinzhal (I’m talking about the cellphone video from the guy on the ground, not the official MOD video of the missile hitting the warehouse). It may very well be, the truth is NONE of us have seen such a marvel in action before, and so none of us can truly say what it would look like. Many speculators claim the “glowing” missile is indicative of the “plasma shield” around it due to its fantastical speed of Mach 10+. This could very well be the case, but the main problem to me is the missile seems too low and is behaving like a low launched Kaliber missile. My understanding is Kinzhal is supposed to travel near the stratosphere fairly high up, something like 50km altitude give or take. And we’ve seen all the test footage of MiG-31’s launching it, it’s always launched at such altitudes. Now it could very well be traveling at that altitude it’s hard to tell from the very low resolution video. https://mobile.twitter.com/dusics/status/1505133411677229059

But personally, my educated opinion is it looks iffy to me. I’ll wait for confirmation or more videos. Truth is none of us know the true characteristics of the missile so it’s impossible to really confirm what we’re seeing, but for now I’m not buying that video, something about it looks off to me.

The largest amateur radio contest sponsored by US “CQ Magazine” just announced recently that no Russian or Belarus participants may qualify for any competitive score. They can only send their contest logs for checking purposes. This is the very first time in the history of amateur radio that such discrimination is utilized. So much different from the “Goodwill Games” back in 1996 when US amateurs hosted a global competition just to emphasize Ham Spirit, commonly shared among amateur radio operators worldwide. Not any more. Non-Russian Hams are openly sending their hatred towards Russians on many occasions.