Meet the modern Chechnia willed by Vladimir Putin and Ramzan Kadyrov:
Saker Message:
Meet the modern Chechnia willed by Vladimir Putin and Ramzan Kadyrov:
I do understand the focus on stability & simplicity after the past, but as you have pointed out numerous times in the past that Russia is a multicultural society & Kadyrov has creating a mono-culture where dissenting views are not welcome.
OK, it’s part of Russia so most people will just go to another state for the weekend, but soon after the potential jihadi wave from Syria & Afghanistan has lessened, Moscow needs to step in a little more & force some more liberal options to be available for those that want them.
Tricky situation globally, & Kadyrov’s Chechnya makes a good answer to the wahhabi fruitcakes and a good example for Putin to show Muslims living successfully in Russia, but longer term Russia needs to make sure people there have a few more options than moving to Moscow, Kazan etc.
Can someone please tell me what the song is that starts getting sung about 0:46 minutes into the Documentary. I don’t speak Chechen but would love to get a track of that song??? Liz
@KenM:Kadyrov has creating a mono-culture where dissenting views are not welcome
As far as I know, this is not quite fair to Kadyrov. For example, he is trying hard to get Russians back into Chechnia and Grozny (folks like the sound engineer in the video), and for that he cannot allow the local population to impose their rules upon the non-Muslims and, as far as I know, he is not doing that at all. I am sure that you can get booze in the local hotels and markets and that nobody forces Russian women to wear the headscarf.
Humans being humans, I am sure that as everywhere else there are bigots and idiots in Chechnia too, but as far as I know the regime is trying hard NOT to make Chechnia look like a 2nd Saudi Arabia.
Keep in mind that all these reforms and activities, while credited to Kadyrov, are all executed under the “high patronage” of Moscow who could move in in just minutes and with immense firepower. And nobody in Chechnia wants that. Nobody in Moscow wants that either, I would add.
Finally, I think that it is impossible to create a mono-culture in a multi-cultural society. The Chechens can tune into all the Russian mass media, into the Internet, and a lot of them live, travel or do business in the rest of Russia. The only way to have a monoculture would be to lock down and isolate Chechina from the rest of the world, which is what happened when the Wahabi crazies turned it into a black hole. What Kadyrov wants is EXACTLY the opposite, he wants to open and integrate Chechnia not only into Russia, but into the rest of the world.
I personally see no signs of Kadyrov trying to crack down on dissenting views – except Wahabism – or trying to create a mono-culture.
Am I missing something? Can you give me examples of what you are referring to?
Thanks,
The Saker
Mostly going on what I’ve seen in videos like the one you posted & a few other articles, but it seems that the only thing actively promoted in regards to education, social activities, etc. are very heavily structured, ie. traditional Muslim activities (there is the growing tourist industry that caters to visitors, but mostly these are not people who will put roots there – it is mostly business orientated stuff).
What I would like to know about if there are any secular schools at all in Chechnya; any gymnastics, ballet, sports activities that women can participate in that don’t require Muslim dress codes for people who grow up there; any ‘officially’ sponsored social activities that that men & women share freely as they do in the rest of Russia, ie. anything that receives some kind of government support…
In regards to monoculture, Anatoly recently posted on Chechen population statistics at his blog – Chechnya previously had a large Russian population with a pretty decent level of minorities – most were ethnically cleansed during the war (mostly driven out but quite a number killed) but what was left appear to have been steadily leaving even when Kadyrov came to power.
If he’s trying to draw them back under the new & really quite successful Chechnya he isn’t doing much of a job of it:
http://darussophile.com/2013/04/20/the-russian-imperialist-genocide-in-chechnya/
There needs to be social activities, schools, etc. if there are going to be anyone who would be willing to bring their family to live in Chechnya who are not of Chechen heritage – and while I just might not just of come across it, I personally have seen no signs of this & I do quite a bit of reading on Russia.
@KenM:what was left appear to have been steadily leaving even when Kadyrov came to power
Interesting, I was not aware of that. Frankly, I don’t expect the Chechens to have turned into peace loving compassion filled peaceniks overnight and let’s not kid ourselves: what brought about their “change of hearts” was not only the fact that they got fed up living in what was called “heaven in the shadow of the sword” (aka Wahabi inanity), but because Generals like Shamanov basically told them “either you stop or we wipe you off the face of the earth”. I don’t know if you understand Russian, but this short video of Shamanov talking to one of the leaders of a “peaceful” Chechen village from which shots were fired (and killed Russian soldiers) is absolutely priceless:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_-J865BbMjQ
As for the local Russians, I suppose many of them have too horrible memories of how their “neighbors” treated them and just want to get out of Chechnia forever and hopefully built a new life for themselves as far away from the Caucasus and its “proud mountain folk” as possible.
Still, I don’t think that Kadyrov or his regime want that. You have to realize that without Russians Chechnia has already lost the vast majority of its specialists (that made even worse by all the ethnic Chechens who also chose to emigrate). Some (many? most?) Chechens might want that, but not the regime in power if only because Kadyrov and his supporters know full well that all his “economic miracle” was made possible only because the Kremlin backed him all the way (its not Chechen money or planning which turned Grozny from a WWII Stalingrad into a quasi-Dubai in only a decade).
There needs to be social activities, schools, etc. if there are going to be anyone who would be willing to bring their family to live in Chechnya who are not of Chechen heritage
You are 100% right and this is a very interesting topic which I will keep an eye on to see if I can find any info about it. I sure hope that Kadyrov sees this as you and I do. If not, he will inevitably get a call from the Kremlin…
Cheers!
The Saker
There is a way to look at the current situation – Russia has lost both wars and now is paying retribution ( essentially buying peace).
Thank you KenM for the excellent article. To understand a macro view presented in the article the following book imo is an absolute must read:
http://lib.aldebaran.ru/author/sokolovmitrich_dmitrii/sokolovmitrich_dmitrii_netadzhikskie_devochki_nechechenskie_malchiki/
The case between nations is NOT closed.
@Anonymous:Russia has lost both wars and now is paying retribution
I am familiar with this argument which, amongst others, Nemtsov has made. I fundamentally disagree with the premise. There is no doubt that Russia won the 2nd war and that the Chechens suffered a massive, crushing, total defeat. Basically, the Chechen insurgency was reduced to a few small isolated terrorist cells. All the leaders were dead except Dokku Umarov.
As for the first war, Russia only “lost” in the sense that the Berezovsky-run Kremlin and Gen. Lebed decided to sign the Kasavyurt agreements even though the entire military was opposed to it as the Chechen insurgency had already been really beat back. But yes, since war is the pursuit of political goals by other means, Russia did lose this first war, but that loss was 100% political, not military.
Regardless, during the 2nd one the insurgency was smashed into smithereens and even right now the grand “Emir of the Caucasus” sits in hiding and makes a statement here and there. That is all he can do. He can’t even do some semi-effective terrorism.
True, the situation in Dagestan is MUCH worse, but that is due to the difficulty/impossibility to find a Kadyrov-like figure due to the immense ethnic diversity of Dagestan. My guess is that a Russian General-Governor to impose martial law and dismantle the corrupt tribal system. However, the situation in Dagestan is not a result from anything happening in Chechnia.
So I reject this argument as based on a false premisse.
A better argument woudl be to say that even though Russian won the war it is still buying peace. That is not false. It is better to pay for a good peace than to pay for a bad war. No?
A better argument woudl be to say that even though Russian won the war it is still buying peace. That is not false. It is better to pay for a good peace than to pay for a bad war. No?
In a military sense, yes, Russia won. Politically, not quite so (you said this). Why would you ever pay for anything if you won the war? Important thing is, Chechens seem to share such a view. The idea that you are being payed whilst having been defeated is rather complicated, right? And feeling victorious they expect to get everything with other’s hands and money. Turks are erecting skyscrapers with Russian money. “Where do money come from? I do not know, Allah gives”.
For example, he is trying hard to get Russians back into Chechnia and Grozny (folks like the sound engineer in the video)
I would not trust Kadyrov. Sure the things he is saying are nice. But as one who lives in Russia, I would never move or even go there because they will never treat a Russian as equal. The best thing you can get would is to be a valuable specie in a cage. Under the protection of the current most successful warlord. When a situation arises Chechens will side with each other not with the truth or justice. If you are a Russian in the situation – too bad for you. Read the ending of the book, the part on Kadyrov’s view about mixed marriages.
You really need some direct experience of dealing with Northern Caucasian to appreciate stories like this: http://www.novayagazeta.ru/inquests/57740.html
This relates to my experience much better than what Kadyrov says or films.
By the way, what do you think about Yamadaev stories? http://newsland.com/news/detail/id/1106290/
These stories about the hero of Russia being suspected of killing of other hero of Russia are no fun at all.
@Anonymous: I assure you that I understand *all* your reservations, and I also promise you that my feeling towards Kadyrov is most definitely not “trust”. Also, I am aware of all the crazy stuff around Iamadaev, Mazaev, Kurbanov as well as the crazy stuff with the “Vostok” battalion which have been disbanded and their personnel either let go or re-subordinated to a Russian unit.
However, I *do* trust Putin and Shamanov to know what is best even if that best gives the “proud mountain folk” the illusion that they won or that Russia is paying reparation. Let them think what the hell they want as long as the obey the law and don’t start another war.
Now that *you* would not want to go and live there I fully understand. Exact same for me. Frankly, I would never trust these folks nor would I want to live around people who have such a potential for barbaric atrocities. I simply cannot forget what these people did when they had the chance to do it. However, I see no better solution than to, on one hand, give them the maximum possible degree of freedom and economic support, and on the other maintain the absolutely huge iron fist of the 58th Army hovering right over their collective heads ready to smash them into oblivion if they ever, EVER try to repeat what they did in the past.
That Putin gave the “Hero of Russia” to some of these folks is just a reflection of his understanding of the “proud mountain folk” need to show-off (What Shurigin calls the “БКП” – большой кавказский понт). I think that it is better to hand out a few medals that risk the lives of Russian soldiers.
Anyway, I do understand everything you are saying and I am not saying that you are wrong in any of it. All I am saying is that pragmatic considerations and self-interest will make Kadyrov realize that he simply cannot indulge in whatever exclusivist fantasies he or his people might have.
Would you agree with that?
Cheers,
The Saker
All I am saying is that pragmatic considerations and self-interest will make Kadyrov realize that he simply cannot indulge in whatever exclusivist fantasies he or his people might have.
Would you agree with that?
I’d like to agree but who knows. Life is good for Kadyrov, everything goes well, he is not a subject to justice. As there is little or no of negative feedback, he may eventually really go lunatic. May be he has already gone. These conflicts with Ingushetia – what are they?
The whole situation is a big mess. There is no escape visible. Just big pain and suffering.
@Anonymous:The whole situation is a big mess. There is no escape visible. Just big pain and suffering.
Compared to what the situation was ten years ago I would say that this is a paradise on earth situation, you know – “the grass grows green, the sun is shining” – and that nobody, no compulsive optimist would ever have dared to dream ten years ago that the situation would be as fantastically good as it is today. Nobody, *NOBODY* predicted that.
Do you remember what all the liberal press was writing then? “It will never work”, “the insurgency will never be defeated”, “Chechnia will be the grave of Putin”, etc. etc. etc.
And what do we see today?
==>there is no war in Chechnia<==
Right this is a miracle.
And then,
==>there is at least hope for a long-term stabilization<==
Look, Kadyrov is not my hero either, but you got to give the man a lot of credit. Just like Putin came after Eltsin, so did Kadyrov come after Maskhadov! He inherited a totally devastated country filled with armed men and weeping women. Is Kadyrov as saint? No. Is he the kind of man I would want my daughter to marry? No. Would I ever trust him or turn my back to him? No. But he is one hell of an iron-willed leader who has dared to acheive that which nobody else could seriously claim “I could have done better” (Well, except that murderous psychopath Umarov, of course, but he is a clown, albeit a nasty one).
What I like about Putin and his people is that instead of just whining and complaining, they get things *done*! While the entire Russian opposition only complains, whines, complains, whines, etc.
The same goes for Kadyrov – he got things actually *done*.
So is the glass half-empty or half-full? Whatever we reply, let’s please remember that only recently this glass was TOTALLY empty and that all the signs are that it is still filling. Then we can eventually get a full glass. But bemoaning that the glass is half empty has never helped filling the glass. Never.
My 2cts. Cheers!
Look, Kadyrov is not my hero either, but you got to give the man a lot of credit
Kadyrov was a net good thing, agreed with that. But he didn’t “fixed” anything or “made things done”. The current peace depends on certain conditions – steady money flow basically for nothing to begin with. This thing corrupts. It can help (and it did) temporarily, but it is anything but a permanent solution. This is like morphine really.
The way to resolve the issue is to integrate people of Caucasus so there would be no hard lines between nations.
But it goes against their current identity and Kadyrov clearly is not following this direction. He prefers good old ways of trying to achieve dominance over neighbours and to feel good at the expense of everybody else. Neighbors do not agree. Caucasus has long history of such a livelihood.
So it seems that something essential should cease to attain real peace – large part of Caucasus identity. Can it happen peacefully and naturally?
This is why I don’t see much hope.
@Anonymous:He prefers good old ways of trying to achieve dominance over neighbours and to feel good at the expense of everybody else. Neighbors do not agree.
Which neighbors has he taken action against or threatened?
Do you really believe that Kadyrov would repeat the mistake which brought down the “Republic of Ichkeria” in 2000 and attack another Russian province?
So it seems that something essential should cease to attain real peace – large part of Caucasus identity. Can it happen peacefully and naturally? This is why I don’t see much hope.
Well, the way I see it is as long as Russia is in the Caucasus the Caucasians will have to play by Russian rules the first of which says “thou shalt not take up firearms”. Can that happen peacefully? Yes – as long as the 58th Army is keeping an eye on all these most “independent” gentlemen. Can that happen naturally? Of course not – this is why the 58th Army is there.
This is why I am very hopeful. Because neither Russia nor the rest of the Caucasus can afford a repeat of the “Ichkerian” experiment, nevermind a “Islamic state of the Caucasus Emirate” divided into Vilayats and run by crazed murderous fanatics.
Or put it this way: if Russia could prevail at a huge, immense, cost in lives and blood when Russia could not even put together one single *real* battalion, do you really believe that Russia could not prevail today?
The main victory of Russia was neither military nor political. It was the victory of the simple Russian kids who poorly fed, without training, without any sane commanders managed to beat down the Chechen “wolves” in the first Chechen war, and when these kids came back in the 2nd Chechen war they showed the world that if Chechnia was full of wolves, then Russia could provide the “Volkodavy” and easily defeat the Chechens. And if even a single company of Russian paratroopers could neither be bought, nor convinced to surrender by several thousands of the best Chechen warriors even if that meant certain death for all of them (http://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/Бой_у_высоты_776) this goes to show that the morale, the spirit, of bandits and criminals simply cannot resist the determination of honest people doing their duty for their honor and not money.
It is one thing to fire your gun on the Kutuzovsky Prospect to show how big a macho you are, and quite another to engage the “golovorezy” of the Spetsnaz GRU in the mountains for week after week after week when no camera is there to record your “heroism”.
These wolves are really good when all they have to do is terrorize sheep. When they meet the volkodavy they “suddenly” lower their tail and run.
This is true of *ALL* thugs, not only Chechen ones. The Russian ones are exactly the same. Really tough when they attack a lone victim, really really meek when the SOBR show up.
So the entire issue is not what the thugs think. It is what the rest of the people, the decent, honest, people, are willing to do to stop the thugs. I think that the Chechens got their anwer in 2000.
Cheers!
Saker,
thank you for a lively conversation.
I tend to agree with a lot of what you say, but my trait as a Russian is to argue, to argue a lot :-) Sorry for that.
It is late here and i’m heading to bed.
Which neighbors has he taken action against or threatened?
Ingushetia is recent development. http://www.regnum.ru/news/kavkaz/ingush/
So the entire issue is not what the thugs think. It is what the rest of the people, the decent, honest, people, are willing to do to stop the thugs. I think that the Chechens got their anwer in 2000.
Here are bad things. Decent Russian people a good in a straight fight when it is clear who the enemy is and who is the friend. This is not the case now.
Also decent people are continuously being betrayed during last decades. Those FSB officers what do they feel? What is being done to “honest people doing their duty for their honor and not money”.
well, I’m gone
have a good day there!
@Anonymous: my trait as a Russian is to argue, to argue a lot
да знаю я – я же сам такой ;-)
Also decent people are continuously being betrayed during last decades.
I think that something has changed in 2000 and even more so in 2012!
“Гюрза” совершенно прав: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ijqjOhogKFg
Воспитывать людей надо..
It is late here and i’m heading to bed.
Sweet dreams и не унывай!