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| Shevchenko |
I just heard one of my favorite analysts, Maksim Shevchenko, offer a very interesting theory about the tensions on the Korean Peninsula. Here is a summary of his theory:
There is no way the DPRK would have started that kind of confrontation with the USA without the blessing of the Chinese. What happened in this case is that the Chinese told the North Koreans to “rock the boat” in Korea as a not so subtle hint to the USA: if you insist on triggering a crisis in Syria, we will trigger one in Korea. According to Shevchenko, the USA immediately got the message and the Americans backed down.
Interesting theory. But Shevchenko did not say what his sources were, neither did he offer any corroboration. Finally, Shevchenko is a world-class specialist of the Caucasus, but not of China or Korean affairs.
Still, I thought I would mention this theory just as an interesting possibility.
The Saker
Hi Saker,
Very interesting if true-and I’d like it to be true. But
1) I wasn’t aware Syria was that important to China (but perhaps they did it as an assist to Russia in exchange for some other favor)
2) How exactly would it work? I doubt China or North Korea were prepared to escalate to actual war, and I’m sure the US knew this. What would stop the US from simply ignoring Borth Korea and proceeding with their plans on Syria?
I had read another similar analysis, regarding the mystery drone the Israelis shot down. The theory was that the Syrian Arab Army was pounding the NATO proxy army in Al Qusayr, which I guess is important. The US warned Syria to pull back or face US intervention. Then the drone was sent by HIzbullah to loiter over Israel’s gas platforms in the Mediterranean, causing the US to back down.
Not sure how true that is either, but it would be nice if the resistance forces had some counter-leverage to knock some sense into the NATO world order.
@Lysander: I wasn’t aware Syria was that important to China (but perhaps they did it as an assist to Russia in exchange for some other favor)
Syria is important for China for at least three reasons: China, just as Russia, cannot accept that the US claims the right to “regime change” any government it does not like, China has its own region which is infiltrated by Wahabi activists (Xinjiang) and, if I remember correctly, China was heavily invested into a project to build a pipeline through Syria (though I am too sick with the flu right now to double check this one, so don’t quote me on that without checking first).
How exactly would it work? I doubt China or North Korea were prepared to escalate to actual war, and I’m sure the US knew this.
Well, assuming Shevchenko s correct, the idea would be to gradually create incidents until the US “got the message”. Risky? Yes, but then, how risky is it really for China? You tell me?
Again, I offer his theory just as a basis for discussion, to see if it makes sense to us. But I cannot endorse it at this point.
Take care,
The Saker
There was a theory that I found quite plausible about Chinese involvement, but it was related to distracting attention from the crisis with Japan, that looked to be spinning out of control.
The Chinese & Japanese both stoked the fires of that, but in China it touched some very deep nerves & looked like spinning the Chinese state policy of a steady rise without disruptions off it’s axis, so the momentum had to be shut down somehow.
The North Korean issue is the obvious shift – with the US using NK as it’s focus for its ‘Asian Pivot’, with numerous bellicose statements, hostile pacts and large-scale military exercises it wouldn’t take much to convince the North Korean leadership that the US really was pushing for a complete regime change operation this time around.
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Haven’t been hearing that much about the whole island issue dispute with Japan these days, with only the odd story mentioning it. The hysteria around it seems to have died off completely.
Off topic but it seems an attorney representing the Guantanamo prisoners has committed “suicide.” Or, as is said in Arabic, “he was suicided.”
http://truth-out.org/news/item/16119-guantanamo-attorney-found-dead-in-apparent-suicide
Perhaps the Russians should demand an investigation. Perhaps even bar individuals suspected of involvement from entering Russia.
Just a thought.
While we are off-topic … my main interest isn’t China’s relationship with North Korea, but America’s relationship (and, by extension the relationship of the ‘free world’ and the ‘international community’) with North Korea. The significant fact about North Korea is that it has developed a primitive nuclear strike force – in the face of diplomatic isolation by the West and a trade embargo (and the West then castigating the North for being isolated and poor), American annual joint military exercises with South Korea close to the border with the North (supposedly to intimidate the North), and their propaganda ‘spin’ often derived from myths and lies about North Korea constructed by South Korean news agencies and published by the South Korean tabloid press – none of this has intimidated the North Korean government or persuaded it to ‘liberalise’ itself or lessen its control over its people. Nor has it brought re-unification any closer.
Having said that, Kim Jung-un has in fact signalled that he wants a ‘thaw’. He has introduced various Western cultural artefacts such as high-heeled shoes and pop music to the masses – and he is making the North Korean top brass watch the Muranbong girl band sing “Sea of Apples at Foot of Chol Pass”, hoping to soften their stiff demeanour and cold approach to life. It can be interpreted as a subtle signal to the West – an olive branch; there is little he can do without a positive response from the West. So far the U.S. administration has failed to respond.
The U.S. has pursued a self-defeating policy of military and propaganda confrontation. Instead of engaging with the Northern government, American intransigence and inflexibility has led North Korea to follow its own path towards a functional nuclear weapons defence system.
All this his is evidence of the greatest American foreign policy failure since the Vietnam War.
Interesting info on Uncle Ruslan.
http://beforeitsnews.com/scandals/2013/05/boston-bombers-uncle-aided-chechanterrorists-for-cia-2431240.html?currentSplittedPage=0
Dear Saker,
Wishing you and family a happy Easter..
May it be a joyous time for you – i hope you are feeling better now..
regards,
Tarek
Dear Tarek
Thank you very much for your good wishes for this day and which I hope will also bring you many blessings.
Christ Is Risen!
The Saker