by Pepe Escobar for Strategic Culture
«Your honors, in this venue I announce my separation from the United States… both in military and economics also».
Thus Philippines President Rodrigo «The Punisher» Duterte unleashed a geopolitical earthquake encompassing Eurasia and reverberating all across the Pacific Ocean.
And talk about choosing his venue with aplomb; right in the heart of the Rising Dragon, no less.
Capping his state visit to Beijing, Duterte then coined the mantra – pregnant with overtones – that will keep ringing all across the global South; «America has lost».
And if that was not enough, he announced a new alliance – Philippines, China and Russia – is about to emerge; «there are three of us against the world».
Predictably, the Beltway establishment in the «indispensable nation» went bananas, reacting as «puzzled» or in outright anger, dispersing the usual expletives on the «crude populist», «unhinged leader».
The bottom line is that it takes a lot of balls for the leader of a poor, developing country, in Southeast Asia or elsewhere, to openly defy the hyperpower. Yet what Duterte is gaming at is pure realpolitik; if he prevails, he will be able to deftly play the US against China to the benefit of Filipino interests.
«The springtime of our relationship»
It did start with a bang; during Duterte’s China visit, Manila inked no less than $13 billion in deals with Beijing – from trade and investment to drug control, maritime security and infrastructure.
Beijing pulled out all stops to make Duterte feel welcomed.
President Xi Jinping suggested Manila and Beijing should «temporarily put aside» the intractable South China Sea disputes and learn from the «political wisdom» of history – as in give space to diplomatic talks. After all, the two peoples were «blood-linked brothers».
Duterte replied in kind; «Even as we arrive in Beijing close to winter, this is the springtime of our relationship,» he told Xi at the Great Hall of the People.
China is already the Philippines’ second-largest trade partner, behind Japan, the US and Singapore. Filipino exports to these three are at roughly 42.7 percent of the total, compared to 22.1 to China / Hong Kong. Imports from China are roughly 16.1 percent of the total. Even as trade with China is bound to rise, what really matters for Duterte is massive Chinese infrastructure investment.
What this will mean in practice is indeed ground-breaking; the China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) will definitely be involved in Philippine economic development; Manila will be more involved in promoting smooth China-ASEAN relations in all sorts of regional issues (it takes the rotating chair of ASEAN in 2017); and the Philippines will be more integrated in the New Silk Roads, a.k.a. One Belt, One Road (OBOR).
Three strikes; no wonder the US is out. And there’s even a fourth strike, embedded in Duterte’s promise that
he will soon end military cooperation with the US, despite the opposition of part of the Filipino armed forces.
Watch the First Island Chain
The build-up had already been dramatic enough. On the eve of his meeting with Xi, talking to members of the Filipino community in Beijing, Duterte said, «it’s time to say goodbye» to the US; «I will not ask but if they (the Chinese) offer and if they’ll ask me, do you need this aid? [I will say] Of course, we are very poor».
Then the clincher; «I will not go to America anymore … We will just be insulted there».
The US was the colonial power in the Philippines from 1899 to 1942. Hollywood permeates the collective unconscious. English is the lingua franca – side by side with tagalog. But the tentacles of Uncle Sam’s «protection» racket are not exactly welcomed. Two of the largest components of the US Empire of Bases were located for decades in the Philippines; Clark Air Force Base and Subic Bay Naval Base.
Clark, occupying 230 square miles, with 15,000 people, was busy to death during the Vietnam War – the main hub for men and hardware in and out of Saigon. Then it turned into one of those Pentagon «forward operating» HQs. Subic, occupying 260 square miles, was as busy as Clark. It was the forward operating base for the US 7th Fleet.
Already in 1987, before the end of the Cold War, the RAND corporation was alarmed by the loss of both bases; that would be «devastating for regional security». Devastating» in the – mythical – sense of «defending the interests of ASEAN» and the «security of the sea-lanes».
Translation; the Pentagon and the US Navy would lose a key instrument of pressure over ASEAN, as protecting the «security of the sea-lanes» was always the key justification for those bases.
And lose they eventually did; Clark was closed down in November 1991, and Subic in November 199
It took years for China to sense an opening – and profit from it; after all during the 1990s and the early 2000s, the absolute priority was breakneck speed internal development. But then Beijing did the math; no more US bases opened untold vistas as far as the First Island Chain is concerned.
The First Island Chain is a product, over millennia, of the fabulous tectonic forces of the Ring of Fire; a chain of islands running from southern Japan in the north to Borneo in the south. For Beijing, they work as a sort of shield for the Chinese eastern seaboard; if this chain is secure, Asia is secure.
For all practical purposes, Beijing considers the First Island Chain as a non-negotiable Western Pacific demarcation zone – ideally with no foreign (as in US) interference. The South China Sea – which in parts is characterized by Manila as the Western Philippine Sea – is inside the First Island Chain. So to really secure the First Island Chain, the South China Sea must be free of foreign interference.
And here we are plunged at the heart of arguably the key 21st century hotspot in Asian geopolitics – the main reason for the Obama administration’s pivot to Asia.
The US Navy so far counted on the Philippines to oppose the proverbial, hyped up «Chinese aggression» in the South China and East China seas. The neocon/neoliberalcon industrial-military complex fury against «unhinged» Duterte’s game-changer is that containing China and ruling over the First Island Chain has been at the core of US naval strategy since the beginning of the Cold War.
Beijing, meanwhile, will have all the time needed to polish its strategic environment. This has nothing to do with «freedom of navigation» and protecting sea-lanes; everyone needs South China Sea cross-trade. It’s all about China – perhaps within the next ten years – being able to deny «access» to the US Navy in the South China Sea and inside the First Island Chain.
Duterte’s game-changing «America has lost» is just a new salvo in arguably the key 21st century geopolitical thriller. A Supreme Court justice in Manila, for instance, has warned Duterte that, were he to give up sovereignty over the Scarborough Shoal, he could be impeached. That won’t happen; Duterte wants loads of Chinese trade and investment, not abdicate from sovereignty. He’d rather be ready to confront being demonized by the hyperpower as much as the late Hugo Chavez was in his heyday.
I’m dead seriuos, pepe you made my day
what a flight over the north from your immens south’s soul
I would like to find any soul in the astrological south
in dissens with Capetown-idioty to share the planetary 3
in thinking on ones own musings
to share the hemisphere’s own sight at the common
planet and to receive as secure as in your sight of the game
your remarks like the way of your responding three
of an natural Arbiter with your heart on the poor’s side of the almighty
same 3 – side like Xi’ and Vladimir’s and Saker’s gang
wellcome invisible comrade
this chain of islands meme a poor people’s spiritual entity
but how mighty God’s spirit is falling into the win-win’s
scale of airy Libra ‘s Dharma
What “Capetown-idioty” – Cape Town is the best city on this planet. You must mean “NewDelhi-idioty”
Courage, maybe.
Badmouthing USA has its comical uses.
Brainpower is necesary and of that I am not shure, he is no tactical “Putin” and flipflopes between USA and every body else in power.
Being a highly volatile leader is not always a service to the population and USA payback is hell for the local people.
“wellcome invisible comrade” from mundanomaniac’s comment above
I just wanted to add my voice in support of his statement. (!!)
Knowing almost nothing of Duterte’s policies, I like to think he carries forward a little chavismo… at least in his anti-imperial fervour! (Vercia V., elsi, among others are much better qualified than me to do this comparison.) Not sure what the future will bring for Duterte, (PCR: “Duterte would do well to request a praetorian guard from China”), but for today, it is nice to celebrate his courage.
This article by Pablo Escobar is way too exuberant over this supposed Filipino “pivot’ away from America.
Firstly, one has to ask is Duerte sincere in his diplomacy, or is he trying to “pull a Turkey” and make a fake U-turn from Uncle Sam, as Turkish ruler Erdogan did with his disingenous reproachment with Russia/Iran after that supposed Turkish coup d’etat?
Even if Duerte is sincere, you can be sure that America will do everything in its power to destabilize the Phillipines (such as reactivating America’s Islamicist proxies like Abu Sayyaf in the Moro conflict); regime change its government, or even murder Duerte.
This is a long list of nations, governments, and rulers that have been the targets of United States terrorism, when they have had the temerity to disobey the American Evil Empire–even in a very limited manner.
Salvador Allende of Chile, Mohammed Mossadegh of Iran, Patrice Lumumba of the Congo, Hugo Chavez of Venezuela, Sadddam Hussein of Iraq, Muammar Quadaffi of Libya, etc…
All victims of America’s “Kill List.”
Will “They” Really Try to Kill President Duterte?
http://journal-neo.org/2016/10/17/will-they-really-try-to-kill-president-duterte/http://journal-neo.org/2016/10/17/will-they-really-try-to-kill-president-duterte/
You know nothing of Mindanao Duterte’s political base. Before the election of Duterte, the military commander of the Moro Liberation Front stated that if Duterte is harmed, they the MILF would launch an all out war against Manila and the US military. Duterte has skilfully separated the Moro from Abu Sayef which he has pledged to crush. One of Duterte’s first Presidential acts was to declare a unilateral cease fire with the Moro Muslim groups and the Communist Party. He immediately released 70 leaders of the Communist Party from jail and some of these leaders are now in his cabinet. In Brunei he said recently that although he is not a member of the Communist Party he shares the same horizon. Duterte’s grandfather was Chinese and approximately 30% of the Philippines population has Chinese ancestry. There are 30 major infrastructure projects that have been signed in China with Duterte which will be announced in the next couple of days. About 20% of the Filipino workforce work in tourism. The Philippines receives about 4 million tourists annually. Only a tiny percentage come from China. 120 million Chinese tourists last year went to countries other than the Philippines. Yes the Chinese are coming to the Philippines. And Clinton’s pivot is dead in the water. As for the assassination of Duterte, he said in a moving speech to Filipino workers in Brunei two weeks ago that he doesn’t want to live past his Presidency and he will die for the poor people of the Philippines. The workers were went wild.
The meeting in China was also attended by a large number of high-level Philippines business men.
Duerte has loval compatriots in the government, in the military, in the top of the business class and in the people. Killing Duetre will just harden the position of the Philippines.
At beginning I was taking back by his comments of when I read ‘Duterte tells US businessmen: ‘Go ahead, pack your bags’”, then I read abut “Philippines’ Duterte tells foreign businesses to “pack up and leave” over drug war” from newsweek, and remember Google’s role in Arab Spring in Egypt, and defy Chinese government on internet censorship.
Arab Spring was disaster for middle east, China kicked out Google, and Google turned out to be a NSA stooge.
Duterte is right here. If they interfering with your policy, kick them out fast.
As for “America will do everything in its power to destabilize the Philippines,” two typhoons within a weeks time is just a start. Nothing… no thing is beyond the realm of possibilities for the pathological lunatics running the United States of America Corporation. Duterte’s intent to rid the Philippines of the lawless US is commendable. It’ll be interesting to observe their methods to eliminate him.
This sounds great but how will he avoid being assassinated?
It might have been better for the USA if they had killed Duterte before he announced his intention to break up with America. Now if something happens to him it will be obvious which spurned lover decided to get back. “Breaking up” in such a public way, though humiliating for the jilted ones, might make it a bit harder for the imperials to remove Duterte without unleashing a political crisis in the Philippines, and even a crisis with China, and elsewhere in Asia.
I love it that, per Pepe, Duterte has eliminated the idea of turning to the USA for “help.” Obviously that would be asking to be further embroiled in an abusive relationship.
Katherine
The real problem lies with the US Special Forces training militant Islamists somewhere in the Philippines. These need to be dealt with asap.
@ it will be obvious which spurned lover decided to get back… harder for the imperials to remove Duterte without unleashing a political crisis in the Philippines, and even a crisis with China, and elsewhere in Asia.
Yes, I tink it was a very smart move.
Actually Duterte is using classic Western methods, along with a lot of hot air speeches to rouse the rabble. The so called “war on drugs” techniques he is using were perfected by the CIA and various mercenary groups in Columbia and Afganistan- both which have led to no decline in drug production, because their aim is not to end drugs but create fear to control the target population who are deemed likely to rebel.
These methods cause mass casualties among the local population in drug areas. That is how FARC communist militia was able to gain power, by acting as a defence against CIA anti-drug squads. This Duterte is a carbon copy of Erdogan. Replace Kurds with Drugs and its the same script.
Proof he is an asset of the West is how he brutally crushed an anti-american protest last week. That was not the action of an anti-imperialist hero, but a cunning actor who follows his orders.
“The so called “war on drugs” techniques he is using were perfected by the CIA and various mercenary groups in Columbia and Afganistan”
The CIA controls the whole global drug trade, especially in Afghanistan (heroin) and Columbia (cocaine). This highly lucrative business, after all, was the traditional core business of its predecessor, the Jewish run Dutch and British East India Companies, whose flag, by the way, became the American flag.
Duterte ‘war on drugs’, I suppose, is a war against CIA drug dealer proxies, dominating the Philippine market.
Thanks Avebury for the balance, your assessment has the ring of truth. But in the end, like the opinion that Assange is Mossad, it doesn’t matter. What has been said has wider implications than just internal Philippine politics. This is the true definition of what a hero is, a person who personifies an ideal or a message; the actual person often bears little resemblance to the legend. It is the effect this legend has on the people listening that is important, and the words “America has lost” has set the souls of millions alight. If these words are true, the legend will endure, otherwise they will be lost and Duterte will disappear (literally).
I hope he has a great oncologist.
“China is already the Philippines’ second-largest trade partner, behind Japan, the US and Singapore. ”
O.k., let’s count: Japan=1; US=2; Singapore=3; China=?. Yes, it´s the second-largest. OMG.
Duterte’s behavior is easy to understand.
The Philipines can be used by the US for an attack against China.
The Philipines can’t be used by China for an attack against the US.
Duterte doesn’t want his country to be used as an unsinkable aircraft carrier by the US against China.
Duterte thinks that China would prevail in a conflict with the US. If that were the case, the Ps would like be invaded by China, like they were invaded by Japan in 1942.
Duterte has come to the same conclusion as former PM Malcolm Fraser and Australia’s most senior politician, who also thinks that in case of a conflict between US and China, the latter will prevail:
http://nationalinterest.org/feature/america-australias-dangerous-ally-11858
Fraser is correctly afraid that in that case, China would occupy Australia.
Duterte and Fraser think alike and bet on the same horse: China sooner or later will expel the US Navy from the South China Sea and will use these tiny islands to create the necessary pretext. Betting on the correct horse will be a precondition for both the Philippines and Australia to secure an independent future.
Kind regards,
Dutch
Dutch,
Thanks for this assessment. This lies at the heart of my activism, that my country is part of an Empire that not only is not in our interest, but will drag us to our destruction. As we are a White colonial setter society, we have buried in our sub-consciousness the original sin of indigenous displacement. This has caused a pathology which sees us afraid of being ‘swamped by our neighbours’. There is a segment of our country which clings desperately to America, for protection against phantoms which in the end the US will make real. Due to our vassalage, we are now a target of Islamic extremism. And on this trajectory, the US will drag us into a war with China we have no business being a part of. We live here in Asia, we need to start acting like it.
To those Europhiles in my country, the idea of independence is terrifying. To me, the idea of being a colony for one more day is making my right hand clench. To those who say we need America, I say Singapore. Britain promised they would defend us; my family and many, many more gave the British 1% of our manhood in the first World War. But as the Japanese approached our coastline, the British abandoned us and their fortress Singapore. We were passed like a drunk prom date to America, and we have been locked in that cellar ever since. Australians, when the time comes America will not save us, she has interests not friends. (side note, every year I thank the US for the Battle of Coral Sea, doesn’t mean I want to wear a gimp mask).
We have stood with America on every battlefield since 1942; we are family. If it wasn’t for the Empire, this would be a point of pride. But America is now a threat to my country, the only one on our horizon. The time is well overdue for Australia to spread her wings and become our own republic. And once the Empire collapses, and Lady Liberty emerges from the dust and rubble, our two republics will embrace as the sisters we are. Until then, don’t mind if we don’t call or write for a while.
“(Peter Lalor) knelt down, the head uncovered, and with right hand pointing to the standard, exclaimed in a measured tone: ‘We swear by the Southern Cross to stand truly by each other to defend our rights and liberties. A universal well-rounded Amen was the determined reply.”
Amen
Who is going to own Australia in the future? There are three candidates:
1. America (current imperial owner, taking over from Britain after 1945)
2. Australian people, what Australian poster Earthrise obviously hopes will happen
3. China, what I think will happen, from geopolitical logic
http://ap-perspective.blogspot.nl/2013/05/australias-defence-white-paper.html
Britain promised they would defend us; my family and many, many more gave the British 1% of our manhood in the first World War.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V5ZeJvXTL68
Australia began its history as “New Holland”…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Holland_(Australia)
… then was taken over by Britain, originally as a penal colony. Later Britain used Australia (and Canada) as a “colonial resource” in its wars against Germany: WW1 and WW2. Now there is the real threat that Australia will be used as a “colonial resource” by the US in WW3.
WW1 was completely organized by Britain in order to get rid of a rising competitor Germany on world markets.
https://www.amazon.com/Hidden-History-Secret-Origins-First/dp/1780576307/ref=sr_1_2
WW2 was organized by international Jewry, who by 1933 got hold of the foreign policy of both the US and USSR.
Putin on Soviet Jews:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VBHXEusG4Pk
Chamberlain on who was behind WW2:
http://nationalvanguard.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/The-Forrestal-Diaries-excerpt.jpg
The sad truth is that if Australia distances itself from America, nobody will fill the void. Not even Singapore as Earthrise suggests.
The cruel truth is that after the rise of Paris-Berlin-Moscow, leaders in Europe and Russia will secretly think: “let China expand into Australia rather than into Siberia”.
Malcolm Fraser admits that Australia has no “friends” other than America. Fraser hopes that by distancing from America, the Chinese will “forget Australia”. They won’t. On top of that, Fraser’s advice that Australia should distance itself from America (in time) is very unlikely to happen.
China (9.6m km2) is only a little bigger than Australia (7.7m km2).
Both countries have large deserts.
China has 1350 million inhabitants, Australia only 24 million.
Australian military: 81k active.
Chinese military: 2.3 million active and unlimited reserves.
Do the math.
Europeans conquered North-America in search of new “Lebensraum”. China will do the same with Australia. There is no defense against that.
Contours of the coming multi-polar world:
http://www.directupload.net/file/d/4486/8rrlwfhb_jpg
If Australians could move from Britain, Holland, etc to Australia in the past… they can move back to Eurosphere in the near future.
About Eurosphere: the rise of Trump in America can only be interpreted as the rise of European America. It is a battle between European America and the AngloZionist globalists. There can only be one result from that battle: the split-up of the US in “confederate flag-waving” fly-over country (MIssisipi basin) of ca. 100 million…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mississippi_River#/media/File:Mississippiriver-new-01.png
a mixed-race East coast (Greater Baltimore/New Brasil), a Mexico taking back the South-West.
Eurosphere will be an alliance, essentially between the four great European peoples: French, Germans, Russians and “Amerikaner”…
http://therightstuff.biz/content/images/2016/06/Boone-20pano-20from-20NPS-201200px.jpg
… plus the European rest. The political center of gravity will be Paris-Berlin-Moscow.
Earlier this summer the leaders of the French and German nationalist Right had a succesful meeting in Strassbourg:
http://www.zeit.de/politik/deutschland/2016-10/afd-frauke-petry-marine-le-pen-front-national-treffen
They both want to reorient themselves on Russia (Gaullist “Europe of the Fatherlands”).
Putin makes similar noises (European Confederation, including Russia):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9gvbS09gN80
Interview beginning of June, 2014 (after EuroMaidan!), president Vladimir Putin had with French media representatives on the eve of the D-Day commemorations in Normandy, France. At 16:39 Putin says:
Francois Mitterrand spoke of a European confederation with Russia as a member. I think this opportunity still exists. We will have it in the future.
In order to create EuroSphere (civilization of Caucasian Greco-Roman-Christian heritage), strong enough to balance the coming Chinese hyper-power, we Europeans (including Russians) must be prepared to fight in North-America to destroy the NWO/US empire. That can only happen if European Americans start an uprising first. Trump is a first step in that direction.
EuroSphere, the worst nightmare for Khazars like Gideon Rachman:
https://www.ft.com/content/e7b61eae-974d-11e5-9228-87e603d47bdc
Let’s make it happen.
Kind regards,
Dutch
Except for trade (and that Australia not be a US stooge),I don’t see that China is interested in Australia. China cares about her neighbor states not being threats to her (similar to Russia’s feelings about her neighbors). But isn’t into taking over areas not historically Chinese.Australia would have much more to worry about from “her “neighbors. Wanting to immigrate there. There are over 200 million people just in Indonesia nearby. And other countries with large populations near as well.I don’t think those countries “will” invade Australia. But if any would. They would come before China would.
Dutch,
There are a few areas of contention here. Firstly, I never said Singapore will be Australia’s patron, but that Singapore represents to us the false promise of our imperial masters. I am open to considering a more aggressive and expansionary China, we need to prepare for all eventualities. But here are a few reasons why I don’t think this will happen.
1. China has no history of aggressive expansion.
Despite being centuries in front of everyone else technologically, the Chinese did not launch a program of global domination as we did. Admiral Zheng He did take his grand fleet on a tour de force, but their military might was used to open markets, not colonise and destroy the indigenous populations. Even though there are disputes on China’s periphery (Tibet, Manchuria, Taiwan and the island chains in China’s first line of defence), China has no history of Lebensraum. Great powers have spheres of influence, and China will rightly exert gravity on all her neighbours (including Australia). Her imperialism, like America, will be economic, and at least in the near term their policy is win-win (unlike America).
2. Fortress Australia
If the mighty Wehrmacht was frustrated by the little trickle that is the English Channel, the three seas surrounding Australia are insurmountable. We have the experience of the Japanese drive SE in WWII to guide us on this one. Our plan is to fight the invader in the Near Abroad, on the many islands and sea lanes between here and China. The Chinese would have to take Indonesia first (as the Japanese did), and being the most populous Muslim country in the world I say good luck. The Indos hate the Chinese, they see them as the Jews of Asia (owning all the businesses). There is no way the Indos will let China base their military there, nor submit quietly to an occupation. China’s Line of Communication would be too long and vulnerable for a large-scale invasion.
3. Gallipoli Redux
Amphibious operations are the most difficult military procedure in the book; the Chinese are decades away from gaining a capability strong enough to project power all the way down here. Only the US could do it now, and then only by expending so much treasure it would not be worth it. While they may get a beachhead on the Australian mainland, they will struggle to supply their forces in the largely uninhabited north of the country. We have strategic depth down to the Brisbane Line, we would fight a very costly (for the Chinese) fighting withdrawal to here. The profit and loss equation for Australia does not add up.
Conclusion,
Siberia is the obvious and eventual place where China will expand to. The fact that Moscow controls this territory from 9300 kms away cannot last. It was a freak of history that the Russians were able to take Vladivostok, this is the historical anomaly that China will correct. Australia is a bridge too far.
Our best play is to drop America and become part of ASEAN. Firstly join with New Zealand and the Polynesian nations to form Australasia. Then Australasia becomes a full member of ASEAN. If all our neighbours turn on us, and they let the Chinese in, we are screwed. Only by securing the Near Abroad can we be safe, and all the nations of ASEAN have the same concerns about a resurgent and expansionary China. By staying with America, we are alienating our neighbours and setting up a time when they may turn on us. Only by cutting the cord and fully integrating into the ASEAN community can our future be assured.
I agree with all your post ,except the part about Siberia.China has interests with trade in Siberia. But doesn’t have any serious interest in seizing it. Which is also true about Australia and China.
China is preparing for an expansive phase, her one child policy has been abandoned. She has depleted nearly all her natural resources, and polluted her environment, so needs to acquire more resources and unpolluted land elsewhere. Siberia, Australia and Africa are all targets. China needs to acquire at least one of those targets, or run into the Malthusian Population theory limits. Just like the US needs war to survive or the US will face severe problems, so China needs expansion to survive or China will face severe problems, but China’s problems are not as immediate as the US’s problems.
Since Australia is Indonesia’s perogative, that leaves only Siberia and Africa. Best case scenario is that the US implodes and thus enables China takes over North America (Alaska and Canada included), else either Siberia or Africa is in the pickle.
China has no history of aggressive expansion.
That argument indeed can’t be readily dismissed, although Tibet might disagree. But it must be said that patterns of behavior in the past are no guarantee for the future. There are a few new developments:
1. excessive overpopulation that even forced the Chinese to implement rigorous measures (1 child family policy)
2. the world is slowly running out of resources and especially China
Furthermore there are some worrying signs:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-09/china-orders-1000-heavy-transport-aircraft-based-experience-united-states-and-russia?page=2
China has ordered no less than 1000 Y-20 troops transporters. After aircraft carriers (a relic from the past/WW2), troop transporters are designed for aggression, not defense. Why the hell does China need 1000 troop transporter planes?
Obviously China has no interest in conquering the fourth most populous state and #1 Muslim country in the world, Indonesia. But Australia is still “empty” (compared to China). There is absolutely no necessity to conquer Indonesia first.
Good people,
The debate is not whether China needs to expand or not, but whether Australia would be a viable (and achievable) solution to this Malthusian problem. We can also add India to this equation, they have even less space and no empty Siberia right next door. Firstly I would want to know how China is going to get through Indonesia? If Indonesia is in a political space where they would agree to allowing China to use it air and sea space for an invasion and colonisation of Australia, then why not colonise Australia itself? And Dutch is not acknowledging the virulent hatred of the Chinese in Indonesia. As gT pointed out Australia is in Indonesia’s migration zone; India would come before China; closer and a direct route across the Indian Ocean to Perth and Broome.
I don’t know if the commentators here have been to Australia, or looked closely at a map, but we are 90% desert ringed with a green habitable zone. So while we may seem ’empty’, our populated areas are the most urbanised in the world. Bit like how Assad only controls 35% of Syria, but he controls all the populated areas; ISIS can eat sand. You make us sound like a bunch of southern belles clutching our pearls and signing “I declare!” as the Chinese horde goosesteps into Brisbane. We are the White Ghurka!!!!!!! 24 million is plenty to defend our coastal belt, when each one of our soldiers is worth 10 of theirs. You don’t know us, we have been softened by the McLifestyle, but we are the fiercest, most independent people on earth. The veterans on this site will tell you, Australia has one of the most illustrious military traditions on the planet. We will fight to defend this land to the last man and woman, added to the insurmountable difficulties of an extended and vulnerable LOC, through hostile territory; I sleep soundly. China will have to sort her problems out elsewhere.
Firstly I would want to know how China is going to get through Indonesia?
Indonesia is an island empire, why would that be an obstacle for China? China can sail through it with its immense merchant fleet of container ships, after China dropped para-troopers over North-Australia first with these Y-20’s.
http://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/china-owned-ships-fleet-expansion-accelerates/
Indonesia (#19) is no match for China (#3). Australia is #15.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_Military_Strength_Index
We are the White Ghurka!!!!!!! 24 million is plenty to defend our coastal belt, when each one of our soldiers is worth 10 of theirs. You don’t know us, we have been softened by the McLifestyle, but we are the fiercest, most independent people on earth.
They outnumber you 1:50 (active military, not counting reserves). I would reserve “most independent people on earth” for the Swiss. As you admit yourself, Australia (and Canada) fought in WW1 and WW2 for the interest of the British empire, not for Australia. And if things don’t change you will fight against China on behalf of the US.
If Indonesia is in a political space where they would agree to allowing China to use it air and sea space for an invasion and colonisation of Australia, then why not colonise Australia itself?
Indonesia (and India) don’t have the naval means to do that, China does or at least will have in the near future with this planned immense troop transporter fleet. And again, I must remind the readers that the fear for a “Chinese future of Australia” was first expressed by the most senior politician Australia can come up with: Malcolm Fraser, not by little insignificant me:
http://nationalinterest.org/feature/america-australias-dangerous-ally-11858
Neither China, India or Indonesia can invade Australia now, as the latter is protected by the US and its mighty navy. The issue is that a major conflict could arise in the South China Sea when China feels strong enough to declare the SCS as a military no-go area for foreign (read: US) navies. The clear Chinese intent is to create facts with these partly artificial islands and use them as a pretext to greatly expand the exclusion zone. The fear is that such a conflict could escalate and involve Australia. Duterte (the topic of this thread) clearly thinks that China would prevail, hence his betting on the Chinese horse, a move that could greatly enhance Chinese self-confidence and entice them to cross the Rubicon.
“Neither China, India or Indonesia can invade Australia now, as the latter is protected by the US and its mighty navy” – Correct. But soon the US will be out of the equation, either brought down by their debt, or brought down by Russian nuclear missiles. Then China will have a free hand to do as she pleases. China isn’t stupid, she is just patiently waiting for the US to collapse and will then make her long planned moves.
It seems that as one problem disappears another one becomes apparent, we just aren’t allowed to live in peace on this planet.
Comrades,
I would like to pick up the other point Dutch raised, the idea of a Eurosphere. Dutch’s point about forming an Eurosphere reminds me a little of Orwell’s three superstates: Oceania, Eurasia and Eastasia. But I think what lies behind this idea is a genuine fear about the future of the West. It can’t survive in it’s current form once the Empire collapses.
The Empire is the main block on European integration, it has been imperial policy for centuries that no one power can be allowed to control Eurasia. So I think Orwell’s Eurasia will happen, once Europe leaves the US orbit and joins with Russia. This grouping will hold the flame of Western civilisation alight, but it will be a less progressive, more conservative version thanks to Russian and German leadership.
Brexit opens up the possibility of Oceania forming as Orwell predicts. Depending on whether the Khazarian Mafia is defeated in the US will determine the character of this state. The only future where Oceania would form I suggest would have to be if the Isolationists win in America, otherwise the world will be scorched with radiation for millions of years and none of this will matter. I don’t think South America will form part of this grouping in our future, though the US is rolling back recent gains at the ballot box. It is possible there will be a Global South grouping including South America and Africa, though it is just as likely that these will be battleground states as Orwell predicts.
Eastasia was the hardest for Orwell to predict in 1949. He had China, Korea and Japan join together, and this is quite possible economically. He had Australia as part of Oceania (which we are today), but I am looking at a different future for us. Orwell predicted that all the lands around the equator would be a permanent battleground (which it currently is). China will certainly sit at the centre of an Eastasian superstate, just by the size of her economy and population alone.
If there does develop a Global South grouping (based on the Non-Aligned Movement), it is possible Australia could fit in here. Locally, India and much of SE Asia was directly colonised by the West, and had quite a bit of cultural transmission take place. As migration continues to evolve the Australian character, we could fit in quite nicely into this ASEAN + India grouping. Together we would have the economy and the population to be self-sufficient, and a similar history of Western colonisation and independence. We could be the Global SE, with South America and Africa the Global SW. We’ll see.
Brexit opens up the possibility of Oceania forming as Orwell predicts.
Exactly, douze points, as they say in EuroVision songcontest circles! On top of that, even Merkel-Germany is keen on forming a European army, something that has always been blocked by US-proxy Britain. Britain leaving the EU would open that possibility. With Britain gone, rest-EU moving to Russia would become much easier:
https://www.rt.com/op-edge/361832-eu-army-nato-germany/
I would like to pick up the other point Dutch raised, the idea of a Eurosphere. Dutch’s point about forming an Eurosphere reminds me a little of Orwell’s three superstates: Oceania, Eurasia and Eastasia.
Here is the map from Orwell’s 1984 (written in 1948):
http://i0.wp.com/www.mattstempeck.com/wp-content/uploads/2007/02/1984worldmap.png?resize=604%2C282
Painting with a broad brush you could identify in that map:
1. Christian State Paris-Berlin-Moscow (Eurasia, purple)
2. Judaic State (Oceania, pink)
3. Islamic State (Disputed Territories, yellow)
4. Confucian State (East-Asia, green)
I find this map extremely interesting. The only mistake Orwell made was failing to foresee that Turkey could abandon Kemalism-secularism and re-Islamify and even could become the leader of global Islam. Extremely revealing recent picture in Gaza:
https://twitter.com/M1Massoud/status/778132931957100544
In my view the rise of China is unstoppable and this fact alone will dictate the formation of Paris-Berlin-Moscow. So far, Putin has been driven into the arms of the Chinese by the behavior of the West, the elite of which still thinks they can own the world:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2_wfMrz9_mY
But meanwhile one of the most prominent representatives of the US empire Brzezinski already admitted that there will be no US-run One World State:
http://www.counterpunch.org/2016/08/25/the-broken-chessboard-brzezinski-gives-up-on-empire/
But in reality, Putin doesn’t wants to be in the arms of China; he wants to be in Europe. Putin in 2012:
https://www.rt.com/politics/official-word/putin-russia-changing-world-263/
Russia is an inalienable and organic part of Greater Europe and European civilization. Our citizens think of themselves as Europeans. We are by no means indifferent to developments in united Europe… I propose again that we work toward creating a harmonious community of economies from Lisbon to Vladivostok, which will in the future evolve into a free trade zone and even more advanced forms of economic integration. The resulting common continental market would be worth trillions of euros.
Putin is the third great czar, after Peter and Catherine, who all endeavor(ed) to connect “backward” Russia to Europe. The situation is meanwhile such that Putin-Russia is the last European hope to escape from the empire and its disastrous civilization destroying multicultural ideology. From this alone Russia deserves a premier place at the European dinner table.
China knows it is Russia’s plan B:
http://russia-insider.com/en/china-fears-it-merely-russias-plan-b/ri15401
But China knows it doesn’t need to fear Greater Europe; nobody in Europe wants to administer China, in contrast to Washington that wants to ram every territory on earth in their empire (read: into the ownership of the Self-Chosen banksters).
The developments in the very near future in America will determine whether Orwell will be right (see map at the top of this post) and the Zionists can keep their stranglehold at least over America/Anglosphere (Oceania), while the EU turns to Moscow, like the European Right wants to do. Or alternatively, if a substantial part of European Americans (“confederate flag wavers”) will manage to escape from Washington, form a new “European Volk”, working title “Amerikaner” next to existing “Volken” French, Germans and Russians and will become allied with Paris-Berlin-Moscow in a EuroSphere sort of Commonwealth:
http://www.directupload.net/file/d/4486/8rrlwfhb_jpg
I see no other geopolitical possibilities than either this or Orwell.
If Europeans worldwide will manage to form Eurosphere and adopt Putinesque pro-family policies, we Europeans worldwide can still be “on top”, like in the past centuries. If not, we are going to see the rise of an Orwellian world where the three (four?) great powers will be in a state of perpetual war.
I am surprised with the map as well. The Confucius states are in east and south east Asia. Chinese has and feels no attachment to south Asia. But I guess some one has to make a map to stoke the fire.
Let us hope, that the Chinese are still smart & that they will protect President Duterte against the reptilian khazarian mafia hit men ?? Chinese should remember the humiliation of the opium war waged against China by the khazarian reptiles ??
“Chinese should remember the humiliation of the opium war waged against China by the khazarian reptiles”
With such long history, if China/Chinese keen to hold grudge of past, we’d all be bipolar, and killing each other off every chance we have.
Duterte needs help, it has nothing to do with Opium war. Today’s Brits are friend of China, and that is good thing for us and the world.
somewhere in the soul of the middle kingdom, there is a memory of a time before reptiles came.
Thanks for your concern about our collective soul.
The past is history, some thing to learn from, not something to cloud our future, or road block for moving forward.
I love the way this Duterte Speaks !! I am dusting up my Little Red Mao’s Book from the 60s !! Is a clear morning sky today in New York City and it feels fresh, full of hope !!
I don’t think that this “courage” just come on Duterte. Surely there is a support from a very important side of the Philippine military elite that also are fed up of the US arrogance and treatment of their country, because after more of 100 years of “establishment” in their local policy the “Americans” are now a real nuisance for the Phiulippino people. Duterte, surely is a “populist” but with a lot of support from that very same people that he promised to “save” from the cancer of the drugs that run amok across the entire country (is only a coincidence that are two very important US military bases in the country for many decades now).
Someone make a comment about Duterte’s life after this direct cut with the historical “godfather” in such open way and had compare him with the last Hugo Chavez. Of course there are big differences, but Duterte have something in favor, China is next door and he openly has jump into its wagon of the greatest change that is The New Asian Century…This is going to be interesting to look in the months to come….
For those who see Duterte as a beacon of hope-
It has emerged that he was married to a Jewish American woman before his previous one. He is a strong supporter of Israel
He loved western culture as a young man
He today told Japanese USA-stooge Abe that his speech to the Communist Party was for purpose of encouraging trade and manners only, not a realignment- effectively he was gloating in lying to the Chinese. His drugs war is being fought with Bronco propeller bombers, serviced by the USA.
He is part of the managed opposition of conspicuous pseudo anti-Americanism, which is for various reasons in some countries encouraged by CIA. Notice how he bought up the zio favourite subject- Hitler, six million, all the key soundbites they need to hear.to keep the pro zio agenda going. They need people like Duterte to keep the topics in circulation. “Manufacture a controversy in order to create a desired emotional response”
I see him as a patriot who care about his people and country. His foreign policy reflects his conviction. I also like his view of region. He wants foreign out of Philippines, want peace and his people to prosper, I am sure there are quit some common to work with.
We are all sum of our past, it reflects here in comments section everyday. How we get out of that past is different story.
Will Nuland be flying to Manila soon to hand out cookies?