I have decided to take some time off two articles which I am working on today to reassure many of you about some rumors which are being spread by the western corporate media. I will go this bullet-style. Here we go:
1) “Russia has massed forces on the Ukrainian border and is about to invade“
NATO and western media corporations are in a panic mode due to what they claim in a threat of Russian invasion for the eastern Ukraine. According to these sources roughly 50’000 soldiers are poised right across the Ukrainian border ready to strike, and they could reach Kiev in 3 hours. This is nonsense, at least these conclusions. From what I know there are indeed a number (dunno how many) Russian units “at readiness” in western Russia, but that really means nothing. First, this is a normal measure when there is instability right across your border. The Poles did the same. Second, having been myself professionally involved in monitoring Soviet military movements during the Cold war I can promise you that if these forces were up to no good, they would not be that easy to detect, assuming they are there in the first place: as far as I know, the Russians gave the Ukrainians unrestricted overflight rights and military observers sent to the border region saw nothing. Finally, considering th actual state of the Ukrainian military, Kiev is not 3 hours away (on land) for the Russian military, but minutes away should the Russians decide to repeat what they did in Prague in 1968: seize the airport and bring in paratroopers. When the western media publishes articles comparing the size of the hypothetical Russian invasion force and the hypothetical Ukrainian force they do what military analysts call “bean counting”. These numbers really mean absolutely nothing. The truth is much simpler: Russian can invade the Ukraine anytime it decides to and there is nothing the Ukrainians or NATO could do about it. Not a thing. And this is not due to the fact that Russian soldiers are some “invincible terminators”, but to the fact that the Ukrainian state and military have basically imploded and to the facts of geography. The real reason behind these rumors it to justify NATO as “needed” to “protect” the EU from an “increasingly assertive and aggressive Russia: total and complete bovine excreta.
2) “The Russian military is heavily dependent on the Ukrainian MIC“
This one has some truth to it. There are specific weapons systems and parts which the Russian military uses nowadays which come from the Ukraine. The best known example of that is the formidable SS-18 ICBM which was designed in mid-1960s (!) in the Ukraine and is still built there. And yes, there has been an extremely controversial decision made by the Ministry of Defense to produce more such missiles. The main reason why this decision was controversial is that the SS-18 uses liquid propellant and that use of a liquid fuel was vehemently opposed by many. Considering the events in the Ukraine I am pretty confident that this entire project will be scrapped and replaced by something admittedly more expensive, but far more modern: an advanced solid-fuel heavy MIRVed silo-based missile. As for the rest, yes, there will be sectors which will force the Russians to stop purchasing comparatively cheap Ukrainian systems and replace them by more expensive but also more advanced Russian ones. So what is bad news for the Russian budget is really great news for the Russian military. Finally, I predict a totally new trend which will soon make its appearance: Russia will begin purchasing Chinese systems for its military. The Chinese industry has a formidable potential and while a country like Russia probably could built everything indigenously, this is simply not cost effective. Even the USA purchases a lot of its military electronics from Japan and even from China. No, the Ukraine was an ideal partner for Russia because they had the system commonality due to a common Soviet past and because of extremely cheap prices Russians could get from the Ukrainians, but technology bonanza for Russia is coming to and end and this is not necessarily a bad thing. Anybody who knows the Russian procurement system will tell you that Russia already has enough supplies in everything it needs to last it for a long while, plenty enough to make a transition to indigenous or other foreign supplies (I am thinking of Brazil and India here).
3) “The Ukrainians are going to sell God knows what to God knows whom“
Again, there is some truth to that. The Ukrainian MIC is in its death throes and everybody in the Ukraine knows that, so now is the time to sell of as much as possible as fast as possible. This will definitely be a concern for some nations, especially for those who like India face a Pakistan already armed with some Ukrainian built systems, but this is not a game changer because most of what the Ukrainians can sell today is not designed to foreign specifications and because all weapons system contracts are linked to huge “external” political and financial factors (kickbacks, non-military economic measures tied in, licensing, etc.) besides the actual delivery of systems. From the point of view of major military contracts the Ukraine is really an extremely unattractive partner. So the most damage which can come from the collapse of the Ukrainian MIC would be the proliferation of some sensitive technologies, a concern yes, but definitely not a major cataclysm: most of the Ukrainian know-how is already getting old, and what is not has probably already been acquired by both the Russians and the Americans.
The bottom line of all that is this: the collapse of the Ukraine has a state definitely creates a long list of potential problems and risks, including a few military ones, but they are most definitely not the most problematic ones. Furthermore, it is precisely because the Ukraine is imploding that Russia has no incentive at all to invade or even get militarily involved. The Russians can basically sit tight, hold a steady unwavering course, just like they did in Syria, and wait for reality to kick in with enough power to bring everybody back to their senses, be it the Americans, the Europeans or the Ukrainians themselves.
I hope that these few pointers are useful to reassure you all.
Kind regards,
The Saker
Saker Message:
Thank you.
Rgds,
Veritas
I would guess that anything known by the Ukraine became known by the Israelis and Americans fairly soon after the orange color revolution.
вот так
The two questions that have not been answered to my satisfaction are:
1) The state of public opinion in the Ukraine; we get the views of the activists, but not the ordinary person.
2. The state of play of the East: I just read an article from April 3rd saying that protests were dying down in Donetsk, while the top story was of buildings being stormed by Russian unionists. That is too stark of a contrast and too twisted by propaganda to give an accurate picture.
I did love the usual arrogant presumption and hypocrisy of the NATO thugs, led by that utter (expletive deleted) Anders Fogh Rasmussen, in telling the Russians where they could position their military on their own soil. While NATO was rushing military equipment to near Russia’s borders. And, that mucilaginous shit-rag, The Guardian, had a picture on its web-site for some days titled Russian forces leaving Ukraine or some such, and speaking of Rostov-on-Don, as the site of the picture. As no Russian forces were in Ukraine and that Rostov, if I recall correctly, is not in Ukraine, it was down to the ‘liberal’ voice’s habitual low standards.
@Veritas: you are more than welcome! :-)
@вот так: you are absolutely right
@Afterthough: we get the views of the activists, but not the ordinary person.
I don’t believe that there is such a thing as an “ordinary person” in the Ukraine. Or rather, they exist, of course, but depending on where they live their views will be radically different. Remember that the Ukraine is a completely artificial “invented” state whose borders are nothing but a combination of the international border of the USSR and the internal administrative borders of the Ukrainian SSR. Also, I think that most people are frightened, bewildered and confused.
protests were dying down in Donetsk, while the top story was of buildings being stormed by Russian unionists
I cannot say for sure, but the protest movement will generally ebb and flow. Pretty soon though this will become much ‘hotter’ with the Presidential elections soon supposed to kick in and with the economy imploding. But the shit will really hit the fan next winter. I don’t expect the Ukraine to stabilize for a long while, at least several years.
HTH, cheers,
The Saker
@”Russia has massed forces on the Ukrainian border and is about to invade”
This is obviously the type of propaganda directed at the Eastern European countries, whose presence in NATO is justified by the fear of “Russian invasions”. And there has to be “invasion” (tanks rolling, smashing everything in the way, bombardments, sirens, much smoke, people feeing, rapes, well Shock and awe Holywood type).
I am pretty sure that NATO knows that if the Russians decide to occupy, it would happen in minutes as it happened in Crimea (didn’t they tried hard to show an “invasion” in Crimea?). If there is not occupied already!
WizOz
The first point is a non-issue and nothing but a beat up of the sort we should expect from corporate western media that is controlled by the secret elite behind the scenes.
Strangely enough though NBC ran a story that pretty much confirmed there is no Russian military build up on the border, see here:
http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/ukraine-crisis/tour-ukraine-russia-border-finds-no-signs-military-buildup-n67336
Apparently the concept of the story was later changed though with the publication of something else by NBC to contradict. I would not know as the controlled mainstream US media is closer to fiction that fact most of the time to be given any attention.
The third point made by VS about the disbursement of military hardware and technology from Ukraine undoubtedly fits perfectly into some diabolical plan by the secret world government that operates through the US.
The ‘threat’ of this technology will be of course used in some way in the future to breathe new life to the ‘war on terror’ or whatever the crazies in the US call it now.
It is a real possibility that some tenuous link will be made between Ukraine and ‘nuclear’ in order to provide a sense of urgency to the next instalment of western oppression of its peoples. Anyone who doubts this need only be reminded of the non-existent weapons of mass destruction and the invasion of Iraq.
In fact anyone who doubts the capacity of these people in the secret world government to do anything need only give a moments some thought to what has happened to their lives, freedoms/liberties, finances/economies and pretty much every other aspect of life over the past 15 years.
This is all but the next instalment.
And now for some classic quotes from Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov:
“The American leadership is apparently stuck, and they just can’t accept the new situation, which arose to a great degree as a result of the deliberate effort of the US and their European allies to bring anti-Russian forces to power in Ukraine”
“What can we advise our American colleagues to do? Spend more time outdoors, do some yoga, have healthy food, probably, watch more comedy series on TV. That would be better than working yourselves and others up, knowing that the train is already departed and that no tantrums, crying and hysterics can help”
from this RT article:
http://rt.com/news/moscow-sanctions-us-relax-417/
Presuambly old John ‘Skull & Bones’ Kerry will ignore that very sage advice.
This reminds me of a quote from a sci-fi novel, going somewhat like this:
It’s funny how problems created by men are just as big as their morals. Little men create little problems: you just have to buy them off, and by the way that’s exactly what they expect – to be bought.
That is to say that, being Ukraine a failed state run by cleptocrats, Russia would have to be insane to take military action – it’s unnecessary since it can either sit and wait… or bribing one or two robber barons to switch sides. Americans top the bribe by offering more? Line the pockets of the next in line and play them against each other. No honor among gangsters, after all.
Anybody follow dedefensa.org?
A quote from this morning’s comment.
<Sur la fin de son propos, Buchanan s’affirme plus précisément selon le jugement que la Russie devient la puissance destinée à diriger la bataille contre l’Occident perçue d’un point de vue culturel et sociétal comme le foyer de toutes les tensions déstructurantes et dissolvantes. Le point de vue reste fortement teintée de religiosité mais n’en prétend pas moins à un certain “universalisme”, une “globalisation de l’anti-globalisation” dans le sens de s’opposer globalement à des tendances globalisantes perverses et qui suscitent des tensions très fortes sinon irrésistibles de reclassement, comme nous observions le 31 décembre 2013. Buchanan encore :
«Author Masha Gessen, who has written a book on Putin, says of his last two years, “Russia is remaking itself as the leader of the anti-Western world.” But the war to be waged with the West is not with rockets. It is a cultural, social, moral war where Russia’s role, in Putin’s words, is to “prevent movement backward and downward, into chaotic darkness and a return to a primitive state.”
Hi Saker,
regarding Ukrainian MIC (and admitting that I’m not an expert on these matters), as far as I know, most of it is located at the East, exactly where the Russian influence (however it’s manifested) the greatest more or less integrated to the Russian economy. I suppose Russia in this or that way would never allow this territory to fall into “western” hands. Either by forced federalization or outright dismembering.