by Eric Zuesse for The Saker Blog
The success of Turkey’s takeover of Syria’s most pro-jihadist province, Idlib, is making less and less likely that Syria will be able to continue maintaining Idlib as being a part of Syria. (This is something I had predicted, back on 14 September 2018, to be possible or even likely, and now it is actually happening.) On July 10th, Reuters headlined “Assad hits a wall in Syrian war as front lines harden”, and reported that, “More than two months of Russian-backed operations in and around Idlib province have yielded little or nothing for Assad’s side. It marks a rare case of a military campaign that has not gone his way since Russia intervened in 2015. While resisting government attacks, the insurgents have managed to carve out small advances of their own, drawing on ample stocks of guided anti-tank missiles that opposition and diplomatic sources say have been supplied by Turkey.” It continues:
Moscow has appeared keen to preserve its ties with Ankara even as its air force bombs in support of Assad: Turkey says Russia has intervened to stop attacks on Turkish forces from Syrian government-held territory. … The Idlib area is dominated by Tahrir al-Sham, the jihadists formerly known as the Nusra Front. [And before that, they were called Al Qaeda in Syria, but Western news-agencies, such as Reuters, prefer not to mention that fact, especially because the U.S. used_Nusra to train ‘our’ proxy boots-on-the-ground ‘moderate rebels’ in Syria to bring down Syria’s Government. Elsewhere, the Reuters article calls them ‘insurgents’.] Some 300,000 people fleeing bombardment have moved toward the Turkish border since April, prompting the United Nations to warn that Idlib was on the brink of a “humanitarian nightmare”.
For Ankara, the Syrian opposition’s last major state sponsor, preventing another major influx of Syrian refugees is of paramount importance: Turkey already hosts 3.6 million of them. …
A Russian private military contractor who was based near Idlib province told Reuters that rebel fighters there are far more professional and motivated than their adversary. Pro-government forces cannot win the battle for Idlib unless Moscow helps them on the ground, he said. …
“Of course the regime [that’s the legitimate Government, but Western ‘news’-agencies such as Reuters call it ‘the regime’, and most of their audience don’t even recognize that their own intelligence has just been insulted by calling Syria’s Government a ‘regime’ while calling the invading regimes, Turkey and U.S., not that] has the desire to recover Idlib by force [as if the sovereign Government of Syria doesn’t have this right], but … without the Russians it can’t [those nasty Russians, who are defending Syria from U.S.-Saud-backed proxy-armies that are led mostly by Al Qaeda in Syria], because there are many militants and the Russians are completely committed to the Turks,” the source said.
Syria’s Government is fighting hard against jihadist forces in Idlib who meet Turkey’s standard of being ‘moderate rebels’ against Syria’s Government, but unless Russian forces there — which were invited in by Syria’s Government, instead of being invaders there like Turkey and the United States are — will commit far more forces for the defense of Syria (which seems increasingly unlikely), Turkey will win Idlib as being a part of Turkey.
Consequently, Turkey is already starting to build infrastructure even immediately to the north and east of Idlib in order to stake its claim to a yet larger portion of Syria than just Idlib. This might not have been part of the deal that was worked out by Russia’s Putin, Iran’s Rouhani, and Turkey’s Erdogan, in Tehran, on 9 September 2018, which agreement allowed Turkey only to take over — and only on a temporary basis — Idlib province, which is by far the most pro-jihadist (and the most anti-Assad) of Syria’s 14 provinces. Turkey was instead supposed to hold it only temporarily, but the exact terms of the Turkey-Russia-Iran agreement have never been publicly disclosed.
Until that 9 September 2018 Tehran conference, Idlib had been the province to which Syria’s Government was busing defeated jihadists who had surrendered instead of choosing to stay and die where they were. Syria’s Government had given its surrounded jihadists this final option, in order to reduce as much as possible the numbers of jihadists’ civilian hostages who would also likely be killed in an all-out bombing campaign there. So, the existing population of Idlib, which was already the most pro-jihadist in Syria, was now starting to overflow with the additional thousands of defeated jihadists who had chosen to surrender instead of to be immediately killed.
At that time, just prior to the Tehran conference — and this was actually the reason why the conference was held — the U.S. and its allies, and the U.N., were demanding that an all-out invasion of Idlib, which had been planned by the Governments of Syria and of Russia, must not take place, for ‘humanitarian’ reasons. There was all that ‘humanitarian’ concern (led by the United States) for the world’s biggest concentration of Nusra and Nusra-led jihadists — and for Syria’s most jihadist-supporting civilian population. So much ‘kindness’, such ‘admirable’ ‘humanitarianism’. Furthermore the U.S. Government was threatening to greatly increase its forces against Syria if that invasion by Syria and by Russia into Idlib (which is, after all, part of Syria — so, what business is it, even of the U.N., at all?) were to be carried out. The Tehran conference was meeting in order to resolve that emergency situation (mainly America’s threats of a possible war against Russia), so as to forestall this attack.
However, now that it’s clear that Erdogan will not follow through on his generally understood promise that this would be only a temporary military occupation of Idlib, the question is: what can Syria and Russia and Iran do to keep Idlib inside Syria, and whether they even want to do so. If Syria loses those jihadists, then not only will it lose the perhaps hundred thousand surviving jihadists there — many of whom came from other countries in order to fight against Syria’s secular Government — but also will lose some of those Idlib natives, who were always against Syria’s secular Government. Since those people would no longer be voting against Bashar al-Assad, because they would become Turks, this would actually be a Syrian political advantage for Assad. Yet, he has been resisting it, in order to hold Syria together. He has always been committed to holding Syria together.
Turkey’s negotiating position is exceptionally strong, because Turkey now is riding the fence between the U.S. alliance, NATO (of which Turkey has been the only predominantly Muslim member ever since it joined in 1952), versus Russia. According to a major report in English from Iran’s Fars News Agency — which had translated from published Arab sources in many countries and which report hasn’t been denied by any of them — Russia had saved Erdogan’s life on 15 June 2016, when there was a coup-attempt to get rid of him. Headlining on 20 July, just five days after the failed coup, “Erdogan Warned of Incoming Coup by Russian Alert”, Fars said that,
Several Arab media outlets, including Rai Alyoum, quoted diplomatic sources in Ankara as saying that Turkey’s National Intelligence Organization, known locally as the MIT, received intel from its Russian counterpart that warned of an impending coup in the Muslim state.
The unnamed diplomats said the Russian army in the region had intercepted highly sensitive army exchanges and encoded radio messages showing that the Turkish army was readying to stage a coup against the administration in Ankara.
The exchanges included dispatch of several army choppers to President Erdogan’s resort hotel to arrest or kill the president.
In any case, after that event, Turkey’s foreign policies definitely switched away from being clearly U.S.-allied, to being on the fence and calculated purely to serve Turkey’s advantage, no longer tied, at all, to NATO or the U.S., and, in many important respects, very much contrary to the U.S. regime. In fact, Erdogan has been emphatic that this coup had been led by Fethullah Gulen, a billionaire Muslim cleric, formerly allied with Erdogan, who since moving to the U.S. in 1999 has been his bitter enemy. In fact, some of NATO’s forces in Turkey were participating in the attempted coup. However, Erdogan holds on tenaciously to that NATO membership, because it gives Turkey enormous leverage it can use in order to grab territory from Syria, which the U.S. regime wants Turkey to do.
Here is how Erdogan has clearlly committed Turkey to taking at least parts of Syria’s northeast:
On 6 June 2018, Reuters headlined “Turkish university to open campus in northern Syria” and reported that, “Turkey’s Harran University, in the southeastern province of Sanliurfa [Turkey], said it is preparing to open a faculty in Al-Bab [Syria] for students in towns under Turkish control. … The Turkish cabinet has also approved opening a vocational high school in Jarablus [Syria] affiliated with Gaziantep University, Turkey’s official gazette said on Tuesday.”
On 30 July 2018, Syria.LiveuaMap headlined “Turkey start[s] to build highways starting from Cobanbey-al-Bab to Jarablus-Manbij in Syria” — all of which is in the parts of Syria’s north that Turkey controls.
On 23 May 2019, Gaziantep University posted an announcement of “The Global Syrian Refugee Crisis” conference to be held in Gaziantep, Turkey, on 14-18 October 2019, and also announced that: “The medium of instruction of our university is entirely English in %80 of faculties and Turkish in some faculties. However, after the ferocious civil war in Syria, we opened four departments (Engineering, Architecture, Administration and Theology) that teach in Arabic language. This was achieved by hiring Syrian academic staff in these programs which created opportunities for refugee students who want to continue their studies in Arabic.” So, it does seem to be Erdogan’s intention that directly across the border in Syria, this part of what has, until recently, been a part of Syria, is to be instead a part of Turkey. This would be the chief favorable outcome for the U.S. regime resulting from the Syrian portion of the CIA-planted “Arab Spring” rebellions in 2011.
On 27 May 2019, the Daily Sabah headlined “Turkey to Build New Faculties to Promote Higher Education in Northern Syria” and reported that
Gaziantep University, located in southern Turkey close to the Syrian border, decided to offer education for Syrians living in the northern part of the war-torn country, the areas that were liberated by Turkey’s two cross-border operations. …
The university applied to Turkish education officials to set up four faculties in northern Syria’s al-Bab, Azaz and Mare districts, which is planned to focus on economics, business, teaching and engineering; some 2,700 prospective students have already taken proficiency exams. The faculties will be the second move by Gaziantep University as it previously opened a vocational school last year in Aleppo’s Jarablus district. While vocational education currently continues in five departments, the university is planning to expand it with four more and to provide education for 500 students.
In 2016, Turkey launched Operation Euphrates Shield and cleared about 2,000 kilometers of area in northern Syria, which was once dragged into darkness by the Daesh terrorist organization.
This seems to reflect Syria’s actual capitulation to Turkey, which henceforth is to control that area — permanently. The only question now is how large the seized area will turn out to be.
The first person, it seems, who recognized quickly the significance of this takeover was the tweeter “domihol” who on 28 May 2019 posted
Turkey is also throwing serious money at its seemingly permanent slice of Syria.
You don’t build universities just so Damascus can take it over soon.
Right below that is his:
I’m sorry to say – my prediction for Syria’s near and possibly medium term future still holds …
Dominic | دومينيك added,
[15 December 2018] prediction:
TRUMP gets the oil & gas
ERDOGAN gets the water
PUTIN gets the “mission accomplished” moment …
9:49 AM – 28 May 2019
However, his predictions there (as is routine for tweets, which are good for communicating only bumper-stickers) are unsupported by anything. For example: Where is Turkey’s oil and gas? Is it actually anywhere near to the Turkish border? Here’s a map which shows where it is, and that’s certainly not near the Turkish border.
In addition, the U.S. regime is evidently preparing to assist Turkey’s takeover of parts of Syria, but focuses it specifically against Iran. On 24 May 2019, the U.S. State Department advertised a “Grant Opportunity” for NGOs to be “Supporting Local Governance and Civil Society in Syria” and are offering up to $75 million to each, in order to “Counter extremism and disinformation perpetuated by Iranian forces” and “End the presence of Iranian forces and proxies in Syria” and otherwise support America’s war against Iran. Perhaps the U.S. and Turkey have agreed that U.S. operations against Syria will continue in the Turk-seized areas after the U.S. occupation of the remaining parts of Syria has ended.
If Assad were to give a press conference now, the first question to ask would be: “Is Syria going to allow Turkish universities and highways to be built on Turk-seized Syrian territory?” Because, if the answer to that is anything like yes, then not only would it seem that Turkey has won against Syria and Russia and Iran, but so too has the U.S., whose fall-back position, ever since it first tried a coup in Syria in 1949, has been to at least break off a piece of Syria, when and if it failed to take the whole thing. The construction of a Turkish university, highway, and/or etc., in Syria, would be a huge apparent win for Donald Trump, but an even bigger apparent victory for Tayyip Erdogan, who now seems to be, yet again, a member of America’s alliance against Russia. (And Iran, too, would seem to be endangered by Syria’s apparent defeat in that part of Syria. But maybe not: is Turkey going to end altogether its alliance with the U.S.?)
Usually, successful aggression is impossible without allies, and the U.S., again, seems to have Turkey as one — and as an extremely important one (more important, perhaps, than ever before).
The U.S. Government wants to remove land from Syria’s Government. The Turkish Government wants to be the Government that actually takes it. So, U.S. and Turkey seem to have made a deal. Turkey took Syrian territory while promising (as the Qatar regime’s Al Jazeera headlined on 5 June 2018 — “YPG confirms withdrawal from Syria’s Manbij after Turkey-US deal”). Al Jazeera reported there that, “The Syrian Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) said its military advisers would leave the town of Manbij a day after Turkey and the United States said they reached an agreement on the armed group’s withdrawal.” Those two foreign invaders against Syria (Turkey and U.S.) came to this agreement in Washington DC, regarding their respective invasions: Turkish forces won’t conquer YPG (separatist-Kurd) forces in any part of Syria unless and until that part has already become instead a part of Turkey — swallowed-up by Turkey. The U.S. will be protecting those Kurds until the U.S. ends its military occupation of Syria. After that, those Kurds will be on their own.
Back on 10 January 2018, Elijah J. Magnier had commented, “Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad also considers Turkey to be another occupying force in northern Syria. He would like to liberate the entire Syrian territory, which is not the case with Russia, which would prefer to end the war as soon as possible and undertake the work at the negotiating table.” Magnier seems to have been correct: Russia appears not to be objecting to Turkey’s land-seizures in Syria. Therefore, Turkey is a “middle-man” between both U.S. and Russia — strategizing with both.
On 19 January 2018, Tony Cartalucci commented, “The Syrian government with support from its Russian, Iranian, and Lebanese allies has embarked on a major military operation to retake parts of Syria’s northern governorate of Idlib. As it does so, the US and its regional allies are rushing to position themselves to ensure the permanent partition of Syria is achieved.” He continued (all of which has likewise subsequently been borne out):
It should be noted that Afrin is located between [Idlib and] territory Turkey is currently occupying. Turkish troops, should they seize Afrin [which they soon did], would effectively have expanded Turkey’s “Euphrates Shield” by 30 miles (53 km) and present an opportunity for its troops to link up with troops of Turkey’s “Idlib Shield.” This would create a large, singular buffer zone within which US-NATO forces could harbor militants driven back by Syria’s most recent offensive.
Depending on Turkey’s success, the zone could be expanded even further, even as far as including Idlib city itself [which happened in September of that year] – thus granting the US an opportunity to present it as a second Syrian “capital” much in the way Benghazi was used in Libya during US-led regime change there. There remains, however, the fact that Idlib is openly occupied and administered by Al Qaeda, making the proposal of transforming it into an “opposition capital” particularly dubious.
Meanwhile, the US itself continues its own uninvited, illegal occupation of Syrian territory east of the Euphrates, having previously justified the invasion and occupation of Syrian territory under the guise of fighting the so-called “Islamic State” (ISIS). …
The US occupation of Syrian territory will be difficult for Damascus and its allies to contest without being drawn into a direct military confrontation. Turkey’s occupation may be easier to confound, but if sufficient political will exists to maintain it along with US backing, it could effectively result in a Golan Heights-style occupation of Syrian territory [by Turkey] that provides a long-term geopolitical pressure point versus Damascus for years to come.
And while US efforts to destroy Syria have fallen short, the US now permanently occupies territory within one of Iran’s closest and most important regional allies. Like a splinter under the skin turning septic, the US occupation will remain a constant potential source of wider infection both for Syria and the rest of the region.
Perhaps Cartalucci was the first person publicly to recognize what has been happening here.
On 8 February 2018, Russia’s RT bannered, “US-led coalition conducts ‘defensive’ airstrikes against Syrian forces”, and reported, “The US-led coalition has also firmly stressed its ‘non-negotiable right to act in self-defense,’ since its service members are embedded with the [anti-Syrian] ‘partners’ on ground in Syria. … ‘It’s very likely that the Americans have taken a course of dividing the country. They just gave up their assurances, given to us, that the only goal of their presence in Syria – without an invitation of the legitimate government – was to defeat Islamic State and the terrorists,’ Lavrov said.”
All of this, likewise, has since been borne out. Key was the September 2018 Tehran summit of Erdogan, Putin and Rouhani (Syria not even being represented there), to decide how to handle Syria’s most pro-jihadist province: Idlib. (It’s even more jihadist than Raqqah, where ISIS was headquartered, and which is the second-most-jihadist.)
On 9 September 2018, the Turkish-Government-controlled (and this also means anti-Syrian) Daily Sabah newspaper bannered “The outcome of the Tehran summit” and reported that:
We know for a fact that Erdoğan’s goal was to prevent the Russians and the Assad regime from carrying out a comprehensive operation in Idlib. In this sense, he got what he wanted. At the joint press conference, the Russian president announced that the three countries, at the request of President Erdoğan, urged all parties to lay down their arms. As such, it became possible to prevent another humanitarian disaster, a new influx of refugees, the collapse of the Astana process [which Putin had established to replace the U.N.’s peace process immediately after Obama bombed on 17 September 2016 Syria’s Army at Deir Ezzor, thus violating the ceasefire agreement that his Secretary of State John Kerry had just signed with Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on 9 September 2016] and the radicalization of moderate opposition, who would have moved closer to the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) [Al Qaeda in Syria]. At the same time, a clear distinction was made between ‘terrorists’ and opposition groups. At the same time, there is no doubt that the Iranian president’s proposal to remove the United States from the east of the Euphrates river was in line with Erdoğan’s own agenda.
Actually, however, the truthfulness of that last sentence is still very much in doubt.
The ultra-reliable Al Masdar News reported on 10 September 2018 that “Russia and Iran have already informed Turkey that they will not accept any jihadist factions inside of Idlib; however, the latter is attempting to convince Moscow and Tehran to avoid carrying out the attack in favor of Ankara clearing these groups.” Putin and Rouhani accepted Erdogan’s promise there (of “Ankara clearing those groups”), and consequently allowed Turkey’s troops to handle Idlib. But, evidently, Erdogan had been lying about that. He didn’t eliminate the jihadists — he has instead been protecting them (except that his forces attack the Kurdish-independence forces against Syria’s Government, the anti-Assad fighters whom Erdogan authentically has been obsessed to kill).
The very next day, on September 11th, Paul Mansfield at Syria News headlined “Erdogan Buys Time for Terrorists at the Tehran Summit” and he observed that
The Turkish newspaper Daily Sabah released the components of Turkey’s plan for Idlib. It doesn’t take a genius to figure out it effectively means annexing Syrian territory, entrenching Turkish proxy Free Syrian Army forces, while falsely legitimizing their presence through a trilateral agreement, one made (it should be mentioned) without the presence of the country it concerns: Syria.
On 18 September 2018, another of the Turkish regime’s major newspapers, Yeni Safak, headlined “Turkey tells 50,000 FSA fighters to be ready for deployment as tensions rise in Idlib” and reported that, “As the Assad regime and Russian warplanes viciously attack the last opposition-held stronghold of Syria’s Idlib, Turkey ramped up its military reinforcements in northern Syria and instructed over 50,000 Free Syrian Army (FSA) [that being the Turkish-led anti-Assad] fighters stationed in Afrin, Azaz, Jarabulus, al-Bab and al-Rai to ‘be ready for military deployment.’”
This anti-Syrian report continued, “The Bashar al-Assad regime recently announced plans to launch a major military offensive in Idlib, which is controlled by various armed opposition groups.” It didn’t mention that those “armed opposition groups” were the members of Al Qaeda-led forces defeated elsewhere in Syria who had chosen to be bused by the Syrian Government into the most pro-jihadist Syrian province, Idlib, instead of to be outright shot to death on-the-spot by Syrian troops, where they had been fighting. Such crucial information was left out of Western news-reports.
It went on: “An attack on Syria’s Idlib, the last opposition-held stronghold, would be a massacre,” and (since this newspaper reflected Erdogan’s anti-Assad, meaning anti-Syrian, viewpoint) it alleged that “Russia and Assad regime target civilians” instead of try to exterminate jihadists — especially now in Idlib itself, to which Syria’s Government had, indeed, been busing the surviving defeated jihadists. (As was previously noted, the only alternative that Syria’s Government had had regarding those hold-out fighters would have been simply to go in and slaughter not only them but the human shields behind whom they were fighting, which would have enormously increased the civilian casualties, which the ‘barbaric’ Assad-led Government was always trying to avoid doing. So: that’s how and why so many of the Al Qaeda-led forces came to be collected inside Idlib to begin with.)
NOTE:
Erdogan might be a double-agent here. But how could Turkey be building infrastructure in Syria and not be permanently taking that land? All of those “seems to be” could be wrong, but it’s hard to see how Syria’s Government could accept any such blatant grab of land away from their nation. I had written on 14 September 2018 about Erdogan’s duplicity, headlining “U.S. Protects Al Qaeda in Syria, Proven”:
Erdogan is in both camps — America’s and Russia’s — and playing each side against the other, for what he wants. But he could turn out to be the biggest loser from ‘his’ success here.
If he exterminates Idlib’s jihadists, then the U.S. side will condemn him for it. But if he instead frees those jihadists to return to their home-countries, then both sides will condemn him for having done so.
The biggest apparent ‘winner’ from all this, Erdogan, could thus turn out to be the biggest real loser from it. And the biggest apparent ‘loser’ from it, Assad, could turn out to be the biggest real winner from it.
Then, three days later, on September 17th, I argued that the big winners from this will probably be Putin, Erdogan, Rouhani, and Assad. The headline of that was “Putin and Erdogan Plan Syria-Idlib DMZ as I Recommended”, and the basic case was presented that this would turn out to be only a feint on Erdogan’s part, and that he and Putin and Rouhani (and Assad) would all benefit from this feint by Erdogan, and take home the win. It still could be that. But only Erdogan himself probably knows. And who can read his mind? The main sign I would look at is whether Putin and Rouhani just ignore, as much as possible, Turkey’s ‘seizures’ of Idlib and of the most-jihadist parts of Aleppo province bordering Idlib to Idlib’s immediate east. (For example, this fundamentalist-Sunni family from Sweida — which is perhaps the most pro-jihadist southern province — migrated during the war to Al-Bab, which is Turk-controlled.) If Putin and Rouhani ignore Turkey’s solidification of its control over those areas of northwestern Syria, then this is how the U.S. side and proxy forces — jihadists and Kurdish fanatics — might lose in Syria, and be forced out of there. This Turkish ‘win’ would entail a loss for both the U.S. and its proxy-forces, especially the Kurds. But it would also entail Syria’s loss of the areas that were always the greatest thorn in Assad’s side. In that case, America’s former proxy-forces in northwest Syria — Al Qaeda’s surviving Syrian forces, plus the separatist Kurdish forces — would henceforth be under Erdogan’s control. If Putin, Rouhani and Assad won’t object to that, then the main loser could be the U.S. regime, which would cede to Erdogan not only America’s last holdout in Syria but also all of its proxy-forces in Syria, henceforth to be totally subject to whatever Erdogan has in mind for them. However, the biggest losers could still be the Turkish and the American regimes. But that would be true only if the surrounded U.S. forces in Syria’s northeast become forced out. If the U.S. occupation stays in Syria, then the U.S. and Turkey will have taken all of northern Syria. But no oil or gas is there, either. (It’s south of there.) What, consequently, is this war even about, any longer? Is it about contending national leaders who refuse to acknowledge defeat? Is that now the only real reason for all of this ongoing death, and destruction? Is it just pure ego?
If Turkey quits NATO, then the biggest loser from the end-part of the Syrian war would be the U.S. and its allies. But, of course, the biggest losers from the entire war are the Syrian people. There’s no doubt, whatsoever, about that.
—————
Investigative historian Eric Zuesse is the author, most recently, of They’re Not Even Close: The Democratic vs. Republican Economic Records, 1910-2010, and of CHRIST’S VENTRILOQUISTS: The Event that Created Christianity.
“The success of Turkey’s takeover of Syria’s most pro-jihadist province, Idlib, is making less and less likely that Syria will be able to continue maintaining Idlib as being a part of Syria.”
Reads more like wishful thinking by the author rather than reasoned analysis. That he quotes a zionazi-gay reuters propaganda piece for backing of this assertion further reinforces this impression.
Erich Zuesse betting on the wrong horse once again …
Another “let’s shoot the messnger” comment…
@vot tak. Agree with all you wrote. Rothschild’s Reuters propaganda outlet predicts that Rothschild’s mercenary army NATZO in retreat has enough chops to bite a juicy chunk out of Syria. I prefer to believe in Dr.Assad’s word, “Not an inch of Syria”; and in President Putin’s word, “Syrian territorial integrity”. We shall soon see who is indulging in wishful thinking.
Alia jacta sunt. Les jeux sont faite.
My articles are and have been supportive of Syria’s Government, and against the invaders, who are trying to overthrow it (or else to take a chunk out of Syria). Apparently, you’ve not read them, or else for some other reason (more intentionally than such mere ignorance and carelessness) you are driven to misrepresent me, since you cannot deal with the facts and their documentation, in this article.
Such ad-hominem attacks are contemptible, regardless of what the motivation behind them may be.
EXACTLY. Well said.
Folks, read it AGAIN, please..! Regards..!
This is a very well-researched article which crystallises many of our fears. The facts on the ground are complicated hence the comments of denial …I remember PCR also had misgivings about this deal with Turkey cleaning up Idlib…let us hope the political climate changes in favor of Syria and Russia to break the deadlock…
@Eric Zuesse. Certainly no ad hominem on my part, I read your work and mostly admire it. Like “vot tak” however, I could not help noticing your source: Reuters, a notorious AZC propaganda outlet. Therefore I beg to proffer a different opinion. There has been a very complex multiplayer card game going on from the start of the NATZO invasion of Syria in 2011, with many spectators betting on the favourites: Wiley Erdogan and Mighty NATZO. But the straight dealers Assad, Nasr’Allah, Khameini and Putin have proved to be the better players. The wheel is still spinning so the game is still open and I am free to lay my bet (or wishful thinking) on Syria and Territorial Integrity.
Russia making deal with Ankara? Maybe. Selling Idlib, getting peace to Syria and Turkey to Eurasian China led integration. Big win for Russia.
@Frankie. A deal made in London & TelAviv? You wish.
“Let me control the Money, and I don’t care who writes the Law” — Great Grand Papa Rothschild
Russia is winning big — but only because Putin keeps his word: “Syrian territorial integrity is paramount”. Paramount under International Law — a foreign concept to the dealers in London & Tel Aviv.
If the takfiri cancer is allowed to remain in Syria it will infect Turkey and the world with salafist butchery. Perhaps Erdogan thinks he can rescue the Uighur butchers, to unleash them in Xinjiang.
What do you mean infect Turkey? Turkey is the source of the infection.
The source is Qatar. Muslim Brotherhood.
Turkey is the Typhoid Mary, spreading it.
They work hand-in-hand.
Thierry Meyssan has some good articles tracing the entire history of Muslim Brotherhood, its interlocking with the West and now NATO. ( https://www.voltairenet.org/ )
Voltairenet.org is posting chapters from Thierry Meyssan’s new book. It documents in horrifying detail the inhuman conspiracies of Western agents in the Middle East.
L445
Could you please enlighten us further on ‘the source of the infection’ being the link between Vicky Ward’s allegations of Qatar funding the Kushners
Also, the link between Hilary’s Huma’s mother being a businesswoman within the MB
Maybe be this is not the place but your comment here has triggered something in me that seeks further enquiries in the quest for Why Now? the Epstein spectacle. Thank You
Your post is triggering my own recollection that Huma Abadin’s mom is very important in the MB. Can’t recall exactly where I read it—maybe here at The Saker? Or Voltairenet? So many aspects of the Hillary-Huma-Weiner (laptop) relationship require more research and analysis.
A search of “Huma Abedin’s mother Muslim Brotherhood” gets a lot of interesting hits.
Sorry I don’t have time to look at them all and report, as I have an early appt and must go to bed!
Katherine
Epstein case is NY Federal Prosecution. Usually big name cases precede the Prosecutor’s attempt to run for Governor of NY.
I haven’t researched it. It is of little consequence in the big picture.
Likewise Huma’s mother’s role in MB.
These are interesting, but nothing will come of them.
The American political system, its governmental system, and most agencies are corrupt.
The Republic no longer belongs to the people.
The Will of the voters now is even defied by the Supreme Court twisting the Law.
The entire social compact of society has been shredded. Rule of Law means little unless you are a target of the government.
As we see the US government trample nations as Hegemon, it likewise operates a Tyranny domestically.
The evidence is in the news every day.
It is becoming like most of the West, a feudal system with a few elites at the top and all others serfs.
Expect the worst. The US won’t disappoint you.
They have it all wrong, the damned ‘antisemites’. Rabbi Epstein was running a yeshiva on his private island, and a training centre for wayward girls. And THAT is why he was so very close to the Clintons. I mean, Bill, that saintly fellow, made 24 trips to the place to inspect proceedings. And Alan Dershowitz and Elie Weisel added intellectual gravitas.
Also William Engdahl’s The Lost Hegemon: Whom the Gods Would Destroy is an excellent material that explains how it all began and the use of the Islamic crazies as proxies in Afghanistan, the former Yugoslavia and elsewhere now including Syria.
I’m talking ‘blowback’. The takfiri butchers biting the hand that feeds on orders from the USA and Sordid Barbaria. An excuse for a coup, the doing away with Erdogan, and a nice fascist, pro-US, junta in power.
““Of course the regime [that’s the legitimate Government, but Western ‘news’-agencies such as Reuters call it ‘the regime’, and most of their audience don’t even recognize that their own intelligence has just been insulted by calling Syria’s Government a ‘regime’ while calling the invading regimes, Turkey and U.S., not that] has the desire to recover Idlib by force [as if the sovereign Government of Syria doesn’t have this right], but … without the Russians it can’t [those nasty Russians, who are defending Syria from U.S.-Saud-backed proxy-armies that are led mostly by Al Qaeda in Syria], because there are many militants and the Russians are completely committed to the Turks,” the source said.”
I had to read this graf three times to figure out what was the real sentence and what was not.
A good example of what makes Zuesse’s turgid writing style—and hence his points—so hard to follow.
All of the interjections could have gone at the end. Or Break the graf into shorter sentences.
Just sayin’
Keep it simple. Especially when you are making complicated points.
Eric, please read Michael Hudson and take him as a model for simplifying your style.
You will gain more readers.
Thanks for pointing that out. However, Hudson doesn’t get into textual analysis, which I am doing in that passage, and I wanted to keep the article’s word-count reasonably short. I agree with you that this passage requires slow reading. Though I think that Michael Hudson is an excellent writer, his articles can’t serve as a stylistic model for me, because there are some important ways in which his articles have different objectives and methods than mine.
It is well known that a “division of Africa” has been undertaken by the European colonial powers in the second half of the 19th century. These colonial powers also have organized building some roads and other infrastructure. Nevertheless, the African countries are independent today.
Actually, one sees a colonial nostalgia in Europe, notably supported by Macron (France) and Jeremy Hunt (who would like to become the next prime minister of the United Kingdom). However, today, to openly impose colonialism is extremely difficult. And it is completely absurd to expect that Russia and China will participate in a “division” of the Middle East – as the European colonialists made with Africa. Remember only that for Putin and Xi, the respect of international norms and justice is an absolutely crucial element of their vision of a world order.
I am surprised that the author does not at all consider the Syrian patriotism. Even with respect to the (from Israel) occupied Golan, this patriotism is very much alive. It is just impossible that the Syrians will accept that Turkey – or any other country – steals them a part of their country.
I am aware that actually, the situation around Idlib and the northeast (where the Western armies are present) is quite complicated, but you should not underestimate the determination of the Syrian people, the Syrian army and the Syrian government. Assad has remained determined in situations, which were much worse.
And please, do not pretend that this or that foreign journalist was the first to have observed some kind of event in and aroud Syria. I am convinced that the Syrians know quite well what happens in their country.
Russia, Iran, Turkey, Syria have consistently and repeatedly stated the need for maintaining Syria’s territorial integrity.
It is hard to believe that Russia, Syria, Iran would give up this goal after having invested so much resources into it.
Jiri,
I would add China, finally. They have a stake in the outcome in Idlib. Between 3000 and 8000 Uyghur, hard core terrorists are there, supported by Erdogan. The Chinese want these fighters eliminated, not coddled to eventually come to Xinjiang or create chaos along the Belts and Roads corridors.
Erdogan has recently gone to China hat in hand to get investments and loans. His economy needs Chinese wealth as the US begins sanctions on Turkey. He could not even purchase the S-400s without more than half of the total cost loaned to him by Russia.
Erdogan is at the Syrian table using other people’s chips.
He needs Iranian military help to hold off the Kurds from Syria and from Iraq. Turkey’s most important General is General Soleimani, Iran’s master of tactics and strategy in Iraq and Syria. Not only does he command the Quds Forces, he commands the Iranian Shiite Militias and Hezbollah when needed.
Turkey’s army is capable. But they have proven over many years to be very needy. They need allies, proxies and air force cover for their heavy use of tank columns and other armor tactics. In Syria, they have to ask Russia (Syria) for permission to fly their air cover.
What is happening is Russia is attenuating all of Erdogan’s tactics and strategies until he is left with nothing more to do but concede to withdraw his patronage and protection of the Idlib terrorists or withdraw all those tens of thousands of fighters and their families into Turkey.
There is no way a permanent Idlib base (veritable Caliphate) will be allowed inside Syria, particularly so close to Russian base at Latakia and so close to Syrian cities. It is absolutely ludicrous to think this will be the end game.
Russia knows how to finish terror wars. If necessary, every cave and bunker, hilltop and tunnel will be blasted. Idlib may wind up looking like Grozny did, but the leadership of the terrorists, the elite fighters are from Russia and CSTO nations. Russia wants them all dead.
What is slowing down the operations is the civilians no one wants harmed. So it takes elite special forces to identify civilian-free targets for precise munitions to destroy, leaving civilians safe, unharmed.
In the end, a decimation will occur, a withdrawal into Turkey will occur, and Idlib will be neutralized, Syria will gain control over all of it.
Instead of hundreds of terrorists being killed each day, dozens are. The Syrians will never rest until the province is theirs, the border is theirs and Turkey is back inside its own borders. A tiny piece of Turkmen turf may be ceded to Turkey in the final settlement of things. Something Erdogan can plant a flag in and call victory. He has bigger fish to fry against the Kurds and he needs Iran badly for that long war.
He has a lot of people to make happy–China, Iran, Russia, Iraq. He needs all of them and their allies (militias) to deal with AQ, the Kurds and the chaos the US and UK and Israel will promote.
Now more than ever, NATO wants Erdogan gone. The longer he stalls in Idlib, the closer he is to his final day in power.
And as a commenter pointed out on another site the other day, with the S400 deal going through, and Erdogan foreclosed from buying US fighter planes, he will have to buy Russian planes.
This all means that the defense of Turkey rests increasingly on having good relations with Russia. There’s no way back from that now.
IMO also,
that(the S300/400 deal) is the key, Mr Grieved!Erdogan is buying insurance with Russia against the USA.
Turkey is being winkled away from NATO and Erdogan is hunkering down from probable US retribution from the sky.
Geo-political location rules,
BUT,
‘the wheel is still in spin’.
Zeusse’s article is required reading/thinking!
thanks Larchmonter – that really makes sense…especially about the terrorist problem coming home to China and Russia (Chechnya) and also the ‘every hill’ comment – reminds me of Putin’s first New Year’s Eve.
Don’t agree. Those who sit on two stools are not in positions of power. They are indecisive and are such because of weakness. Not to say they don’t have advantages. As for diplomacy with Turkey, to ignore their interests would be fatal. Diplomats have to account for all interests, including those one may consider your enemy, to come to settlements. Though carving up a nation, piece meal, is unacceptable and would be disastrous for Russia’s diplomatic efforts. The Idlib enclave is considered, controlled by terrorists, by most parties. Turkey wants that land and wants Kurds out so they make deals with the devil. Idlib is a cauldron, the area is slowly squeezed, not expanding. Turks are reportedly sending men and material to help the enclave, that is an expense. When they stole oil, manufacturing and industrial equipment out of Syria they were in profit mode. Western powers don’t want to be seen pulling back, so they won’t give up even if they can’t change anything short of coming out in front instead of being in the shadows. That would lead to WWIII.
This war started by external actors and won’t be finished until those external actors are done. Syrians, bless them, are paying the ultimate price for being the E4 square on the chessboard. US/EU midwifed and directed ISIS into Syria, gifted an armada of Toyotas, and used them as a battering ram against Syria. They created a little shop of horrors for the citizens. It is unforgiveable.
Maybe this ties in with the Turkish purchase of Russian anti-aircraft missiles and planes to be able to destroy American planes and missiles. If they deploy them to the south, in another year or so when the deliveries have been made and the crews trained, they could cover a Turkish seizure of southern Cyprus.
The Americans and EU and UK would probably be deterred from attacking Turkey in retaliation for the seizure. If the Americans insist on a demonstration attack, using their European vassals to absorb casualties, and the attack fails with heavy casualties, there would be pressure on the Americans to make a nuclear attack. If the Russians used their super-missiles to shoot down the nuclear missile(s), the Turks would be triumphant, the Americans discomfited, the Russians would gain kudos, and the Sultan would gain more loot and prestige.
The Turks could afford to turn away from Idlib, allowing the Syrians and Russians to grind down the surplus terrorists and regain the damaged and looted territory.
The Turks could share some of the offshore oil and gas around Cyprus with Russia – which would gain more from involvement with the Turks in promoting sales to Southern Europe than from the extra resources. They might give some of Cyprus’ oil and gas to Israel to quieten them.
Wait a couple of years and maybe Syria regains Idlib, the Turks grab all of Cyprus, the Sultan gains more loot and power, the Russians gain more influence over Turkey and sale of gas to Southern Europe, as well as a new area of defence pushing NATO ships and planes from the Black Sea and Eastern Mediterranean. The Americans have to become more cautious. The Greeks get another opportunity to complain fruitlessly.
A triumph for old fashioned diplomacy!
Let’s wait a bit. I wonder, how Erdogan’s position turns once he gets sanctioned and cut out from NATO for his new AA missiles. Is he going to be able to dance on the fence after that. There have always been some very good chess players in Moscow, as far as I know. They have not been waiting that long just because they cannot squash the Jihadis, so much better in Idlib than somewhere else. That is a bunch of cutthroats, like the rest of them has been and where are they now.
A great article but I believe that history shows that Erdogan is not that smart. Especially, compared to the opposition.
Assad will have to face facts Idlib is lost but is that such a bad thing given it is the most militant & anti government district in the country. Let the Turks have it the bigger issue for Syria is the fate of the eastern Euphrates which the Kurds control as that is where the main oil wealth & agricultural land is located. That is key to Syrias economic future.
Facts?
Syria was lost.
Damascus was lost.
Hama was lost.
Daraa was lost.
Deir ez Zor was lost.
Palmyra was lost.
Douma was lost.
Aleppo was lost.
Hell, nearly all was lost.
He lost his brother. His army was on miracles and prayers.
Syria is not going to cede Idlib to Turkey.
This is pure stupidity and in some cases, bullsh*t propaganda.
The world chaos makers know Russia and Syria can finish Idlib in weeks. That is why they have been screaming human rights and chemical weapons and war crimes at them, and leading pinheads to think the task is not possible to wipe out the terrorists without killing thousands of innocents.
Well, look at all the cities Russia and Syria reclaimed. Without destroying everything and everybody. And in rapid fashion.
Assad and Russia are not going to stop until all of Syria is in Syrian hands.
Syria has a great legal case for war reparations from Turkey. It will win an enormous sum. Why would it capitulate on Idlib?
There is no strategic, tactical, political, military or geopolitical reason to think Syria is not going to take all of Idlib.
I haven’t read any here.
I haven’t heard any from any source.
If the war had been lost, if it ended in some dismal stalemate, you might have an argument.
Syria has vanquished its rebels, its terrorists, the Caliphate, AQ, and much of al Nusra.
The negotiations in Astana (Nursultan) and Geneva are making headway.
Assad is leading his nation. He has their complete devotion to reclaiming every inch of Syria pre-2011.
It is preposterous to think Idlib is some throwaway piece of real estate.
If you want to know how they will blast the terrorists out of their holes, bunkers, tunnels and caves, check this article for one solution. The weapon has two munitions, both perfect for Idlib.
https://cont.ws/@contemplator/1387463 . (use Yandex browser for translation)
“Most horrible Russian weapons — heavy flamethrower system TOS-1A, the author writes. He is convinced that it has significantly improved the efficiency of the Russian army, and its distinguishing features will remain unsurpassed for many years. Now other countries have nothing to oppose to this kind of weapons that are capable of “7 seconds to destroy the whole village.”
Jerzeel ? Jersrael maybe ? ADL maybe ?
Dear Larch…
You forgot Golan.
And i am adding this for that little sayanim Jerzeel
Syria will never give up Golan.
Syria will never give up the Palestinian cause
The Resistance is going all the way to Hell Aviv and al Quds.
And Russia ,who has never given Toyotas to ISIS , shall take Constantinople …God willing
They [Zionists] should have listened to the butcher of Shatila when he was telling them to reconsider.
You are living in the Holy Land in total defiance of The Divine and it too late for you to repent,just like Pharao when he was drowning…
A well deserved end for any oppressor.
Cher Ariel S…
Avec votre petit cul qui brûle en Enfer,
Vous nous manquez…
Dear Ariel S
With your ass burning down in Hell
We miss you…
Yes, it does look grim for the Syrian army to reassert itself in Idlib. But there is another more important fact: Syria knows that it cannot coexist with the festering jihadi pestilence in Idlib.
Eric’s analysis is certainly rational but misses that human nature is not rational. We can tell the Syrians to give up taking back Idlib, that it is impossible, but the Syrians will say ‘so it’s impossible, but we will do it anyway’. And they will do it.
Here is the SitRep as I see it in Syria, for Syria and Syrian people:
Their society has been rendered by a bloodletting that has cost 400,000 lives and God-only knows how many injured and disabled and traumatized others.
Generally, every family has lost members. The Syrian Army suffered massive casualties, especially in the early years before the Russians arrived. So you have the central authority with deep personal and organizational losses.
The oil sector has been captured in the East by the US/Kurds/Tribal Traitors and ISIS/Turks.
The agricultural lands are in the East/Northeast controlled by 14-25 US bases and the SDF/Kurds.
Early on, the industrial sector was captured and dismantled factory by factory and trucked to Turkey.
The best machinery, tools and technologies are gone.
The basic utilities infrastructure has been destroyed. Electricity, the grid, the power plants are destroyed.
Water supply is controlled by Turkey, Kurds, US.
There is no Syrian water supply that could support new agriculture and the returning masses. Syria would die of thirst if things remain as they are.
Syria is dependent on importing petroleum products for the military and civil use. Sanctions are restricting those imports.
Syria’s ports need modernizing and expanding. China will eventually do this. Meanwhile, importing is limited.
Most of the civil order in the reclaimed cities and villages of the Western sectors is because of Russian Military Police and systems of government that resolves civilian issues. The Syrian government cannot afford to take men from the military and reform police departments strong enough to keep terrorists away and former rebels obeying local orders. Russian MPs have the people’s respect and the bad guys realize the Russians don’t take prisoners once the last warning is given.
The reconstruction of Syria will cost 100s of Billions of Dollars. The other nations of the world must make these dollars appear or Syria will never come all the way back. China is prepared to put $60 Billion to the task. But the fighting has to end. And the oil has to become Syrian property again.
So, when we look at Idlib, Erdogan, al Nusra, US and Israel, UK and France (both of whom have pledged ground troops to keep Syria broken and fighting terrorists), you can see that a confrontation of the Russian-Iran-Syrian military and US/Israeli/NATO vassals is primed. I don’t see this being resolved diplomatically.
And the delusion that Assad will lose an election or he will be bartered away is nuts.
The West won’t put a penny into the reconstruction of Syria. Thus, it is a Eurasian project. Iran is beginning a rail connection through Iraq. The US will definitely try to destroy it. It would link Iran to the Syria coast, bringing Asia to the Mediterranean (the essence of Belts and Roads). This would benefit Central Asia, Caspian Sea nations, South Asia and East Asia. Syria, rail, highways and pipelines is a nexus and destination for 4.5 Billion people. So, too, it would benefit the North African nations, via maritime connection to Syria, and Southern European nations via the Mediterranean.
Thus, the reconstruction of Syria would be a bonanza for 5 Billion people, all of whom need growth, prosperity and modern development.
Watch Russian foreign ministry and military connections with these nations. Russia will be harnessing all the nations it can to assist in whatever ways they can to bring Syria back from the dead.
Now, look at Idlib. It is dwarfed by the all the big issues Syria must overcome. Thus, it is a pimple that will be pricked and the pus will be bled out swiftly. It is of little consequence to be allowed to stand in the way of the big issues Syria and its military must face yet.
Idlib is really all about killing off the terrorists there. It is as simple, rudimentary as that. You kill them in small numbers and large. It won’t be easy. It merely is necessary. There are no other considerations.
Turkey has had ten months to defused the terrorists. Erdogan chose unwisely not to.
Putin has been there before. Grozny and Georgia. And God knows how many secret tasks he has sent Special Forces to rid the Earth of similar crazies.
The place to kill them is where they stand. The time to do it is soon.
There are some nice photos (18+) on Colonel Cassad of recent action wiping out some of these terrorists.
Looks like two bomb blasts did the trick.
Erdogan has started his military operations in Iraq. He knows his days in Syria are dwindling away.
There are too many other nations who see Syria as a nation they need to make a comeback.
Most importantly, Russia and Putin need Syria to come all the way back.
My money is on Moscow over Ankara, or Washington and Tel Aviv.
There is something wrong w/this statement, it was said the terrorists were moved to Idlib rather than being instantly killed where they surrendered, a meeting was arranged and this was part of the agreement. So why would you round up the surrendered terrorists only to mass kill them while everyone watched. I understood the article to be controlling these surrendered terrorists by allowing Turkey to control the area around Idlib thus giving the Assad administration a terrorist break to further strengthen the areas they can control.
Plus since these rounded up terrorists are mainly backed by the U.S, and nato, this would give them the reason they need to choke off the resources Iran and Russia want to send there via oil tankers, they have already said they would let the captured tanker go as long as it didn’t deliver its cargo to Syria.
This does not seem to be rocket science, it seems to be a losing the boots on the ground war leads to an economic war of last resort, I think escorted tankers are the solution to this war.
In almost all cases of transported terrorists on the Green Buses, there was no surrender. The fighting was halted which is a usual Russian tactic, and talks were engaged, with an exit for the terrorists. This was to save civilians, to save Syrian and Russian manpower, to end a siege and move on to another region.
They surrendered all their heavy weapons, so they only had AKs and a few RPGs they smuggled.It is a strategy. It worked.
The reason why Idlib became the haven, it was where the money and medical flowed from Turkey and Qatar. It had several ratlines into and from Turkey. The Uyghurs ware always there. Al Nusra was stationed there. FSA was there but they got wiped out by al Nusra.
You don’t have a handle on the facts, the history or what the hell the Russian military does in wars it fights.
What really worked well was putting all the camps of rebels and terrorists in one area. They began killing one another in very large numbers. Turkey lost its valuable FSA proxy. ISIS and AQ lost valuable leaders to al Nusra. Even some of Assad’s most hated rebels were eliminated in the intramural carnage.
And massing tens of thousands of terrorists in one locale makes targeting them for air strikes and heavy artillery quite a bit easier.
Quite brilliant. It didn’t cost the Russians or Syrians a single bullet.
The article said U.S, Nato, Russia, and Syria all had some kind of meeting, and the outcome of that meeting was to spare the lives of the surrendered terrorists if they would relocate to Idlib, for whatever reasons.
I think your interpretation is faulty here, too many things dont add up.
Perhaps, your article faith is overused. The US never met with Syria, that you can be certain thereof. They would not recognize Assad’s authority.
The big US-Russia arrangement was in the Southwest, Daraa and As-Suwayda, the region along the Jordan border, close to Israel. Again, no Syrian participation. Israel was part of this, of course. And Jordan.
Russia didn’t make any other US-involved deals. They did the talking. In many of these evacuations, the terrorists families was the issue. If the terrorists were surrendering, they would have been sent to Syrian military prisons (and probably eliminated there).
Need I parse more of your vacuous comment?
Gather a number of sources and see if you have an accurate account of any of the battles.
Since this occurrence happened several times during the war, you might discover the integers that add up.
One article is not sufficient. At least, the one that has you confused, bewildered and challenging me.
Ok, it was Iran and not Syria, but all the negoiations I challenged you with appear to be accurate according to the(this) article.
And I quote:
Until that 9 September 2018 Tehran conference, Idlib had been the province to which Syria’s Government was busing defeated jihadists who had surrendered instead of choosing to stay and die where they were. Syria’s Government had given its surrounded jihadists this final option, in order to reduce as much as possible the numbers of jihadists’ civilian hostages who would also likely be killed in an all-out bombing campaign there. So, the existing population of Idlib, which was already the most pro-jihadist in Syria, was now starting to overflow with the additional thousands of defeated jihadists who had chosen to surrender instead of to be immediately killed.
At that time, just prior to the Tehran conference — and this was actually the reason why the conference was held — the U.S. and its allies, and the U.N., were demanding that an all-out invasion of Idlib, which had been planned by the Governments of Syria and of Russia, must not take place, for ‘humanitarian’ reasons. There was all that ‘humanitarian’ concern (led by the United States) for the world’s biggest concentration of Nusra and Nusra-led jihadists — and for Syria’s most jihadist-supporting civilian population. So much ‘kindness’, such ‘admirable’ ‘humanitarianism’. Furthermore the U.S. Government was threatening to greatly increase its forces against Syria if that invasion by Syria and by Russia into Idlib (which is, after all, part of Syria — so, what business is it, even of the U.N., at all?) were to be carried out. The Tehran conference was meeting in order to resolve that emergency situation (mainly America’s threats of a possible war against Russia), so as to forestall this attack.
Still bewildered?
You, sir, are the bewildered and bothered one.
Who wrote this article you quote? You might learn that here we supply links to source material.
Russia to be attacked by the US? A world war, a nuclear world war, begun over al Nusra?
I’ll clue you in.
The Tehran conference was among Iran, Russia and Turkey. The US was not a party to the meeting.
It was here that Erdogan got laced into the present alliance with Iran. Putin’s deft work. He gave Turkey months to establish control, using his military, and clearing out mapped areas where Syria and Russia would take control.
https://www.tolonews.com/index.php/world/syria-summit-tehran-decide-idlib-military-offensive
That’s the deal he has not been capable of accomplishing.
Here’s a rational view (amazingly) from Qatari source:
https://www.dohainstitute.org/en/PoliticalStudies/Pages/The-future-of-Idlib-After-the-Tehran-Summit-Settlement-or-Confrontation.aspx
The storm around the offensive from the UN and NATO, EU and US was psy-ops. It has no bearing on what Russia and Syria will do.
End of our conversation . . .
Dont get upset here, you might be the one making(and acting on) interpretations w/o enough of the proper information. This same article was posted on another site by the same author, and that is where I read the information first and made my comments about it here.
And so you asked and I delivered said information from that site, it was titled the same, w/the same author, and I figured it held the same material, perhaps it didn’t, perhaps it didn’t for a reason, perhaps that reason was to get snap reactions from a political stand point and not a humanitarian one.
This is what I sensed from your reaction(s) to my comments. You can end the conversation, you can not be involved anymore, you can be entitled to your own opinion, but you can not be entitled to your own facts.
the reasoning in this article is plain wrong:
erdogan is in idlib only to prevent americans
taking over (he knows russia/iran/syria wouldn’t
engage & stop the pindos… to avoid direct confrontation/ww3)
and the pindos connecting their kurdish kosovo 2.0 with the
east Mediterranean -> a huge nightmare for king kebab
once the pindos r out and kurds are under the official syrian
authorities & gov structures, erdogan will pull out
– he surely doesnt need x0,000 ‘troublemakers’
or some lands – stealing land from
syria would only invite the creation of kurdistan
btw, i’ve read a forecast, that in some 10-20 years
kurds will make the majority in turkey bcz kurdish women
are having 3-4 kids while turkish ones 1-3
…. real trouble ahead
RATM
“erdogan is in idlib only to prevent americans
taking over (he knows russia/iran/syria wouldn’t
engage & stop the pindos… to avoid direct confrontation/ww3)
and the pindos connecting their kurdish kosovo 2.0 with the
east Mediterranean -> a huge nightmare for king kebab
once the pindos r out and kurds are under the official syrian
authorities & gov structures, erdogan will pull out”
Yup. The Turks provide a buffer between Syria and her allies and israel and its colonials. Said israeli colonials (nato and co.) can not attack a fellow nato member without seriously destabilizing nato itself and zionazi power.
This is why israel’s colonials are making such a big stink about Turkey buying the S-400 system, they want to ditch Turkey from nato eventually (the israeli greater israel project envisions Turkey broken up and partially occupied), so Turkey can be fair game for aggression by israeli colonial elements, IE: fellow nato members.
The Turks obviously have their own strategic plans for self enrichment, but I think these are more about getting more influence in both east Med. energy resource extraction and future positioning Turkey on the silk road/economic belt economic expansion.
Nah, Turkey and its proxies will be expelled from Idlib and all of Syria. Turkey hasn’t seen the beginning yet of resistance to its blunder.
The Arab tribes of Syria, the Syrian Arab Army, NDF, and even Assyrian tribes, coupled with the armed Kurds will give Turkey hell on Earth soon. Occupations always start out rosy, but soon sour drastically. Just ask the Americans.
Turkish proxies in Libya are also being cornered and slowly destroyed. Turkey is the prostitute of the E.U. / U.S. /NATO / Israel / Qatar. All will sell her out when the tough gets really going, and Turkish soldiers start returning in body bags in greater numbers.
Again, lets wait for the real resistance to Turkey and its proxies to really begin, before we cry ‘ Syria is screwed ‘ .
Yep, as Tsar Peter I used to say again: “Don’t trust the three: don’t trust a woman, don’t trust a Turk, and don’t trust a non-drinker.”
Erdogan is proving Peter the Great’s point emphatically, Putin saved Erdogan from the coup, and now Erdogan is repaying him by hanging onto Idlib. (But Putin had to save Erdogan else the whole of Turkey would have been turned into ISIS and that huge number of Wahhabi-ed Turks then thrown against Syria, Iran and possibly Russia.)
All Syria must do is stalemate the front lines and try creep slowly forward while lobbing ballistic missiles at any concentrations in Idlib (Yemeni tactics), but not too many too soon, just enough to keep the terrorists on edge day and night, else the Turks might invade Syria and spark WW3 in the process.
Here is the thing … take a look : by Eric Zuesse for The Saker Blog
Let’s make sure that our differences are based on the picture that the author represents, and not what we like to see. I don’t take kindly to folks disrespecting Eric Zuesse that wrote this piece for us. Surely you can disagree without fighting the person, which is ad hominem.
Once you take as much time to reply as what the author took to write, then you can be taken seriously.
I happen to disagree with the main premise but will take time to write clearly what I disagree with. I am not in the slightest in the mood to disrespect Erih Zuesse and I suggest nobody else should be in that mood.
Thanks Larchmonter …
In the run-up to WWII the Turks forced the French to give them a chunk of Northwest Syria as a bribe for not siding with the Germans.And for decades the Turks have held out claims to other border regions of Northern Syria.I have little doubt that the “Sultan” Erdogon is up to his tricks of playing both sides against each other for the best deal.The fact that the Russians even had to finance the S-400 deal,pay for the Turkstream pipeline,and finance the nuclear plant they are building for Turkey,says a lot.And with only a few words,and few actions,some of us believe we have “turned him” over to the right side.Maybe China could offer him enough development aid to “flip him”. But I don’t see them doing that.So that makes me wonder why not. Don’t they worry about the Uyghur terrorists in Syria? We hear they do. Or,do they not trust the Turks to do anything about the situation? A much more telling question.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hatay_Province
But we still are maybe missing a bigger point. Turkey is not Erdogon. When he is gone ,what policy will Turkey follow? Will there be another coup? The last Turkish elections (as corrupt as they were) showed Erdogon’s support has weakened.And I’m wondering how much support in the seats of power does he still have.Every week or so RT reports on 30-40-70 or 100+ Turkish soldiers,journalists,officials,etc,still being arrested for being connected to the failed coup.It’s looking close to the dragnet arrests of people that just don’t like Erdogon,mixed in will real coup plotters.Just how long can that go on? Unlike leaders of countries with genuine mass support among both the people and the elite (Putin and Xi ,etc). I don’t see Erdogon with that type of support outside his own political party. If Erdogon was to die,be removed,or just retire,who are the leaders that would carry on his policies? The only Turkish leaders I’ve seen reported on were all very chummy with the US until the coup.Will they go back to that policy after Erdogon,or will they also continue Erdogon’s fence sitting policy.We have no way to know that. After Erdogon,will we find a now non-friendly Turkey,holding on to more stolen Syrian territory like we saw after WWII?
For Russia and Iran its a real “dammed if you do,dammed if you don’t” situation. Turkey controls the key to any Russian shipping in or out of the Black Sea. And short of all out war,that isn’t changing.While Iran is being hit hard by the US and its spineless vassal allies.Turkey is one of the only powers in the region that is continuing to trade with Iran against the US’s diktats. And I suspect that is the reason Qatar has also kept its trading relations with Iran (Qatar is very close friends with Turkey) is Turkish support for Qatar.So what is Russia and Iran to do.Certainly as long as there is the slightest hope they can “turn” Turkey,or at least keep her from openly siding with the US.They can’t do much for Syria’s valid claims against Turkey. I’m sure Russia and Iran are unhappy about that,but what choice do they have right now.My concern is that without firm commitments from Turkey,a future (possibly near future???) Turkish leader will ditch the friendly relations the current one has with Russia and Iran.And they will be stuck with wasted billions spent on Turkey. And with a worse position for Syria in holding on to their own territory. Sure Syria will “claim” the land. But as with the Golan,claims and possession are not the same.
Is it possible that the courts can lose their integrity? Leaders come and go, laws come and go, but if court persuasion is enough to keep these past agreements alive, claims and possessions can become one and the same. If not, then some nasty fighting is waiting in the wings.
I see disintegration already in U.S. politics over court mandated actions and then political strife over enforcing these actions, perhaps this is a prelude of what is to come.
“They can’t do much for Syria’s valid claims against Turkey. I’m sure Russia and Iran are unhappy about that,but what choice do they have right now.”
Russia and Iran are Turkey’s energy suppliers. All they have to do is turn off the taps and watch Turkey’s economy -and military- literally grind to a halt. (This is why Erdogan is furiously drilling off the coast of Cyprus – to diversify his supply).
You are right about Cyprus. Israel is busy stealing the lion’s share of the energy in the Levant region.But Turkey wants to get in on that action too and grab whatever is left to grab. But as far as Russia and Iran goes.Russia never refuses to sell its energy,even to her enemies.Ukraine,the EU and US,are prime examples of that.As well as the point I mentioned about control of the in and out of the Black Sea.Russia just wouldn’t do that unless they were ready to go to war.While, Iran ,as we hear about daily,is trying to sell as much oil as they can wherever they can. They aren’t going to lose the sales to Turkey unless they have to.Then there is the fact that Turkey could always buy Saudi,Qatari,Iraqi,Azerbaijani (they are even building a pipeline from Azerbaijan right now) oil supplies.These problems are what I meant in the post when I said it was dammed if you do,or dammed if you don’t.
This is complex, but I think VVP had already summarized it when he said the war was over and the remainder is political.
There are four areas of concern.
Idlib – where Turkey is attempting a land grab.
East of the Euphrates – where delusional Kurds are attempting a land grab.
Al Tanf – where Centcom is attempting a land grab.
Golan – where Israel is attempting a land grab.
All of these perps think they can proclaim noble motives then violate international law, and they can until they can’t.
Everything is made possible by the almighty dollar until it isn’t. In another thread, Larchmonter alluded to four trillion USD that China controls. I responded there by roughing out the purchasing power of 4T USD which, as it turns out, is approximately the worth of all our (US) agricultural land.
For the USD to remain supreme, the US economy must continue to function. I’m guessing that without agriculture or the ability to import commodities, it won’t.
At some time in the near future, the great chessboard will lose a few squares where our pieces are located (I’m US) and pick up a few where the RICS are located. (Russia, Iran, China, Syria). There will come a time when not quite enough fuel is available for all the troops at bases worldwide, or the dollar can’t quite buy all the fuel it needs, so some bases have to be shut down. Perhaps there is unrest at home because the big box stores are sold out of a couple of items and the trucks don’t run quite so often.
Then there is the situation where Erdogan or his not quite so MB friendly successor decides that trade with China is more important than promises or threats by Hegemon, or both, because lately Hegemon is having trouble making good on either.
Come someday, Rogue State is having a crisis because suddenly certain oil sheikdoms are more unstable than before, and Rogue State decides to barter away the Golan in exchange for security. Ditto with the Kurds.
All of these actors have their faith in an unstable Hegemon that is rapidly approaching a tipping point.
I agree with VVP. The solution is political. What he did not mention is that the negotiations will be between unequal partners, these being the stable RICS block and the unstable Hegemon-Rogue State-European group.
VVP understands that southern frontier must be secured. This means Syria and Lebanon, Iraq, Iran, Turkey and the Caucasus. Given the fortitude shown by the Syrian people, I think the term “stand up guy” can be widely applied, it would be illogical for VVP to abandon them in favor of Turkey.
O próximo presidente da Turquia pode não querer ocupar a Síria. De uma hora pra outra todas as analises podem ficar de cabeça pra baixo.
Translates to:
“The next president of Turkey may not want to occupy Syria. From one hour to the next, all the scans can turn upside down.” Mod.
It will be a war of attrition and in the end, Turkey and the US, will leave
… plus adequate compensation for the numerous factories thoroughly dismantled and stolen, plus adequate restitution for the overall mayhem and abuse inflicted upon a good righteous neighbour.
I believe Kremlin has Erdogan in full control mode, after unsuccessful (thanks to Russia) coup in Turkey.
Erdogan is aware that only Russia can save him from any future similar attempts by Washington, thus he must play the way Kremlin wants. The countless number of meetings with Putin, in last 2 years, just proves it. On top of that we have Turkish Stream on its way, military cooperation between Turkey and Russia, etc…
Unfortunately, Syria and Syrian people are suffering as a result of it, but for Russia right now, priority seems to be taking Turkey out of Washington’s sphere of interest.
Dear saker,
This is an excellent analysis by Eric Zuesse! I don’t always agree with his vision, but I am not an expert on the Syrian conflict, and take my hat off to the depth of his research.
Quoting from Zuesse article: “— “YPG confirms withdrawal from Syria’s Manbij after Turkey-US deal”). Al Jazeera reported there that,”
Except they never left. YPG/PKK never left Manbij- they are still present there to this day alongside the american/french occupation forces. And that’s easy enough to confirm from recent news that has the Saudi’s traipsing around Manbij with SDF/YPG/PKK alongside the US.
https://syrianobserver.com/EN/news/51270/what-is-al-sabhan-doing-in-manbij.html
“Sabhan headed in a convoy of three American military vehicles to Manbij…”
“Immediately after his arrival, Sabhan held a broad meeting with the SDF’s “civil council,” responding for running affairs in Manbij…”
The Saudi’s are coughing up cash to rebuild the US/SDF occupied areas.
Therefore the narrative created by Zuesse begins to fall apart..
Further Zuesse’ s contradiction from the title “an advantage of being in NATO” to article itself
Eric Zuesse “In any case, after that event, Turkey’s foreign policies definitely switched away from being clearly U.S.-allied, to being on the fence and calculated purely to serve Turkey’s advantage, no longer tied, at all, to NATO or the U.S., and, in many important respects, very much contrary to the U.S. regime”
While citing an advantage of being in NATO- Zuesse contradicts himself by pointing out that Turkey is acting in a way that demonstrates Turkey is “no longer tied, at all, to NATO or the U.S. and, in many important respects, very much contrary to the U.S. regime”
Which is it? I’ve serious doubts that the US led NATO is going to reward Turkey for acting contrary to the edicts of either the US or NATO?
Furthermore:
Why did Russia and Syria move the terrorists to Idlib?
What was the thinking behind their plan?
Did they do so to pressure Turkey?
Did they do so in cooperation with Turkey?
Considering that three nations surround Idlib with outposts (Turkey, Iran and Russia) their had to have been some understanding on the part of all parties? What was it?
Penny:
Why did Russia and Syria move the terrorists to Idlib?
What was the thinking behind their plan?
Did they do so to pressure Turkey?
Did they do so in cooperation with Turkey?
Considering that three nations surround Idlib with outposts (Turkey, Iran and Russia) their had to have been some understanding on the part of all parties? What was it?
Good questions. I thought that Zuesse was sayihng that the original promise might have been to eliminate the terrorists, but that Turkey might have had fingers crossed and actually be trying to gain control of this force for its own purpose—to annex Idlib. But then again these guys might not be very easy to control. Does Turkey realy want this pocket of political pus right next to its border?
Did I understand that wrong?
Katherine
Hi Katherine: :)
I suspect another reason that Turkey, Russia, Iran and Syria may have agreed to the moving of the terror crowd to Idlib was to act as a block for Kurdish westward expansion…
as well as :
Russia to pressure Turkey
Turkey to keep any more refugees out of Turkey
Iran to keep the Kurdish problem in check
Block Usrael expansion
I don’t put much stock in Zuesse’s idea that it was to eliminate terrorists and Turkey having it’s fingers crossed.
Zuesse should be fully aware that the Kurds are still solidly implanted in Manbij.
No, I don’t think Turkey want’s this “political pus” outside their border… it will have to be dealt with.To my understanding there was an agreement in place to switch the area over to Syrian rule..in an organized manner.. (I have solid suspicions that Usrael is a much bigger player in Idlib then is commonly mentioned)
The status of Idlib is specified by international law and UN conventions, if I am not mistaken. It’s not permissible to acquire territory through military conquest. The RF government respects these conventions even if President Trump does not. Based on that, Idlib is a part of Syria. The actions of Turkey or any agreements between any third parties such as the US or Russian Federation are irrelevant. The same holds for the Golan which is also a part of Syria whatever actions taken by Israel or blessings from the US. We should be careful that Idlib is not used as a precedent for the Golan and vice versa.
A good brief news report of sabotage on Syria’s gas pipelines, coordinated to destroy power production of electricity.
https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2019/07/15/600989/Syria-repairs-gas-pipeline-in-eastern-Homs-after-sabotage-Ministry
Syria War 2.0 is an insurgency-counter-insurgency war for the most part. Hunter-killer units of elite soldiers will have to hunt down and wipe out the terrorist cells and the “advisers” from US, Israel, UK, France and other NATO nations.
This will go on for several years.
We will probably see private contractors and small militias used in some cases.
Maybe the easiest explanation of Idlib is that Turkey has been harbouring a big slice of the population of Aleppo since 2013 and would like somewhere to put these people longer-term without creating an Arab minority in Turkey…
A ‘big slice of the population of Aleppo’? I think not.
Back when Russia got involved, many moons ago, the Syria that the government controlled looked like a chunk of Swiss cheese. Dier Ezzor, Palmyra, Daara, etc. were all controlled by moderate head choppers.
As the government retook these areas, a tactic developed where the head choppers were allowed to relocate to Idlib. Thus, the Syrian government could recover territory and the bad guys could keep their dream alive.
Many lives were saved this way. I suspect it was hoped that the bad guys would use the opportunity to quietly leave Syria, just as I suspect it was hoped that Hegemon would use this opportunity to quietly leave Al Tanf.
Alas, idiocy prevailed. You mentioned the hand of Israel. I use the term idiocy. Tomato, tomahto.
Erdogan possibly saw this as an opportunity to gain territory. I suspect he is being given time to reconsider.
Syria is a natural gas pipeline route to Europe. Several groups do not want it (competing with Russian gas) and several groups do (Iran, Qatar, those with gas). Some have oil and some have gas. Gas is not always found with oil.